Brexit Consequences

[sheldrake]

I see from 2016 his political judgement was off, misread popular feeling pretty significantly when assessing 'will brexit happen', and overestimated the power of urban opinion-formers.

[temptar]

So you dont really know what life in the UK is like. Have a look at our unemployment figures, rate of inbound immigration (an indicator of how many people want to live here) GDP growth etc.. and compare to other EU countries.

Okay, let me quite frank. I lived in London 25 years ago. I won't be going back to live. In addition, I have lived in six other EU countries and I visit Switzerland several times a year. I certainly know more about life in the UK than you do about life in rural Tipperary.

Ireland's GDP growth is higher than the UK's at present. Most of western Europe's covid infection rates are way lower than the UK's. Ireland has a significantly more democratic system of governance. We also have taken a lot of inward migration. A metric tonne of Btitish people have been desperately looking for proof of the,right to Irish citizenship. Your precious home secretary, suggested starving mycountry as a way to leverage the EU in negotiations that almost 50% of your population never wanted.

Ireland is food secure. There are no queues for difficult to obtain petrol. Lots of people want to go to the UK but not that many HGV drivers, it appears.

We are watching events in the UK, aghast. Your media, so utterly government compliant, cannot hide your logistics problems they are so messed up.

No country is perfect but you cannot acknowledge this. You deflect and ad hom. I have to look at the UK as a tragicomedy because it is utterly heart breaking to see you vote in the clowns you do and pretend everything is alright.

It isn't. It already wasn't. Figures suggest that 40% of your children nationally live in poverty. And the number of foodbanks is growing. You are taking 20 quid a week from universal credit. 40% of claimants are the working poor. You have a deeply unequal society with policies designed to widen inequality and blame the poor for it. You have the highest college fees in Europe. Opportunity is for the privileged now. You don't know what petrol stations in your country have in their tanks and you criticise my ignorance of your country.

[sheldrake]

Okay, let me quite frank. I lived in London 25 years ago. I won't be going back to live. In addition, I have lived in six other EU countries and I visit Switzerland several times a year. I certainly know more about life in the UK than you do about life in rural Tipperary.

Ireland's GDP growth is higher than the UK's at present.

Firstly, you don't know anything about my connections with Ireland or how much I know about life there.

Secondly, Ireland's GDP growth appears about 1% lower than the UK's at present https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper ... C/WEOWORLD

Ireland has a significantly more democratic system of governance.

I agree with that, for as long as we have the current house of lords.

We also have taken a lot of inward migration.

Not nearly as much as the UK.

Your precious home secretary, suggested starving mycountry as a way to leverage the EU in negotiations that almost 50% of your population never wanted.

Starving Ireland? when ?

Ireland is food secure. There are no queues for difficult to obtain petrol. Lots of people want to go to the UK but not that many HGV drivers, it appears.

There are no queues where I live either. Has it not occurred to you that the stuff you're watching is giving you a distorted perspective because they want to scare the Irish population out of leaving the EU?

It isn't. It already wasn't. Figures suggest that 40% of your children nationally live in poverty.

Poverty stats are based on divergence from an average, not absolute standards of living. If the UK is so economically disadvantaged, how do you explain the net flow of migrants from Ireland to the UK https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-sty ... -1.3998770

Before complaining about Ad Hominem, I sincerely advise you to read back over the tone of your own posts to me in this thread. You come across as angry and triggered.

[Gfamily]

Lol, in terms of growth try looking at previous years. What a dolt!

[temptar]

I get my view of events in the UK from UK media. Not EU media. And I pointed this out in my last post.

GDP per capita in Ireland is double that of the UK. You arecoming from a lower base, something people have been pointing out to Brexit supporters at length on twitter.

Irelanddoes not want to leave the EU. We have done the union with the UK thing already and it led to the country being the only European country whose population was higher in 1840 than it is today. And: https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/brex ... -tjp7k76mq Note I chose a UK media source for you.

It is obvious from other people's posts that your petrol supply situation is not generalisable across England. I understand SE England in particular have suffered.

Lastly, on the migration point, I don't subscribe to the Irish Times and I cannot find inward migration figures for Irish people to Britain or vice versa. The headline suggests the figures are global figures however and not UK specific and in any case, there are migratory pattern differences between big population countries and small population countries.

[temptar]

Also, for, I am not triggered. I despair at seeing a rich country being destroyed by its own government.

[sTeamTraen]

Firstly, you don't know anything about my connections with Ireland or how much I know about life there.

Well, why don't you tell us? It's hardly a medical secret.

[sheldrake]

GDP per capita in Ireland is double that of the UK. You arecoming from a lower base, something people have been pointing out to Brexit supporters at length on twitter.

I really wish people would stop treating twitter threads as authoritative. The UK also has a higher growth rate than France, Germany, Italy and Japan. GDP per capita in France and Japan are comparable, in Italy it's lower. This 'lower base' stuff is not relevant.

Irelanddoes not want to leave the EU. We have done the union with the UK thing already and it led to the country being the only European country whose population was higher in 1840 than it is today. And: https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/brex ... -tjp7k76mq Note I chose a UK media source for you.

It has a paywall, looking at other sources Priti Patel did not threaten to starve Ireland. She said that a no deal scenario would hurt Ireland's economy more than the UKs and that Ireland and the EU should be reminded of that during the negotiations. This was then wildly spun by all the usual suspects (Nichola Sturgeon etc..) to harken back to the potato famine etc.. The idea that the UK would deliberately and unilaterally blockade food to Ireland is really wide of the mark, and a mendacious thing for people like Nicola Sturgeon thing to claim in order to whip up bad feeling between the two countries.

I certainly don't think Ireland would want to become part of the UK again, but you might find in future years that you get a better deal (and more independence) from joining something like the CPTPP instead.

It is obvious from other people's posts that your petrol supply situation is not generalisable across England. I understand SE England in particular have suffered.

Yes, the south east has had more reports of shortage than where I live, but other areas have experienced much less and the link with Brexit that's being attempted is pretty spurious.

Lastly, on the migration point, I don't subscribe to the Irish Times and I cannot find inward migration figures for Irish people to Britain or vice versa. The headline suggests the figures are global figures however and not UK specific and in any case, there are migratory pattern differences between big population countries and small population countries.

More people leave Ireland than return, year after year, and the most favoured destination is the UK.

[temptar]

Here is a BBC report. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-46488479

Patel's comments have not been forgotten. Note, the report she is relying on is a UK government report too.

The net point she made was to threaten a no deal using food supply to Ireland as leverage on the EU. I deliberately gave you British de facto sources on this matter. This suggests Britain could not afford a no deal since a senior minister suggested this as leverage. Q

[sheldrake]

The net point she made was to threaten a no deal using food supply to Ireland as leverage on the EU. I deliberately gave you British de facto sources on this matter. This suggests Britain could not afford a no deal since a senior minister suggested this as leverage. Q

This narrative doesnt make sense. You believe the UK govt. threatened something it could not afford? The UK govt always wanted a deal, Pate simply wanted to reinforce the consequences of obstinacy to the EU. We got a deal.

The EU was the only party which threatened an internal border in Ireland and to date.

[Martin_B]

GDP per capita in Ireland is double that of the UK. You arecoming from a lower base, something people have been pointing out to Brexit supporters at length on twitter.

I really wish people would stop treating twitter threads as authoritative. The UK also has a higher growth rate than France, Germany, Italy and Japan. GDP per capita in France and Japan are comparable, in Italy it's lower. This 'lower base' stuff is not relevant.

You're not getting this. From your own data source (https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper ... C/WEOWORLD) Ireland has a GDP growth of 4.2% compared to the UK's 5.3%.

But the GDP per capita of the UK is $46,340, while for Ireland it's $94,560. So the increase for the UK is $2,456, while for Ireland the increase is $3,972. So while the UK's growth is slightly higher, Ireland's GDP per capita is increasing 62% faster than the UK's.

The lower base is relevant.

[sheldrake]

GDP per capita in Ireland is double that of the UK. You arecoming from a lower base, something people have been pointing out to Brexit supporters at length on twitter.

I really wish people would stop treating twitter threads as authoritative. The UK also has a higher growth rate than France, Germany, Italy and Japan. GDP per capita in France and Japan are comparable, in Italy it's lower. This 'lower base' stuff is not relevant.

You're not getting this. From your own data source (https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper ... C/WEOWORLD) Ireland has a GDP growth of 4.2% compared to the UK's 5.3%.

But the GDP per capita of the UK is $46,340, while for Ireland it's $94,560. So the increase for the UK is $2,456, while for Ireland the increase is $3,972. So while the UK's growth is slightly higher, Ireland's GDP per capita is increasing 62% faster than the UK's.

The lower base is relevant.

You ignored the comparisons with all the other countries which have simillar or lower GDP per capita and lower growth (e.g. France, Italy, Japan etc..). It really isn't relevant.

[Lew Dolby]

This 'lower base' stuff is not relevant.

It is if you're talking about growth rates as you were two sentences earlier.

[lpm]

I always enjoyed it when people jumped to Trump's defence with "he never said that" and "that's not what he meant" and "it wasn't Trump that did it".

And straight after Trump would say "Yes I said that and I meant it and it was me that did it".

Now poor Sheldrake's having that moment. His "It's not Brexit" is promptly followed by the Conservatives this week switching to "Yes it's Brexit and we're pleased because it shows we're changing Britain".

[sheldrake]

You're really trying to torture stats to suggest that the UK's growth rate is only higher because it has a lower GDP per capita. There are lots of countries (including countries in the EU) with simillar or lower GDP per capita with a lower GDP growth rate.

Besides, Ireland's GDP is wildly distorted by a few massive corporations that have tiny fig-leaf HQs there for tax avoidance reasons. Median income in Ireland is much lower than the UK, even after you adjust for purchasing power.

[Martin_B]

You ignored the comparisons with all the other countries which have simillar or lower GDP per capita and lower growth (e.g. France, Italy, Japan etc..). It really isn't relevant.

If they have a similar GDP per capita then there isn't a lower base, it's the same base. I provided some figures because you were arguing with temptar about Ireland vs the UK where you argued that the lower base wasn't relevant. Between these two countries the base is relevant.

If one country has a GDP per capita twice that than the other, then the growth rate in the first country would have to be twice for the GDP to be increasing only at the same rate. Maths, bitches!

[sheldrake]

If they have a similar GDP per capita then there isn't a lower base, it's the same base.

You're still ignoring the ones with a lower base that also have a lower growth rate.

Maths, bitches!

Your maths is based on just ignoring evidence that doesn't fit your hypothesis.

[lpm]

Stop it all of you. There haven't been any valid GDP figures for any country for a year and a half.

[sheldrake]

Stop it all of you. There haven't been any valid GDP figures for any country for a year and a half.

In 2019 our GDP grew faster than Germany, Japan and Italy too.

[plodder]

Stop it all of you. There haven't been any valid GDP figures for any country for a year and a half.

"our GDP growth over the last quarter is the highest in the world because we ended lockdowns and no-one else did yay winners"

[sheldrake]

Stop it all of you. There haven't been any valid GDP figures for any country for a year and a half.

"our GDP growth over the last quarter is the highest in the world because we ended lockdowns and no-one else did yay winners"

If it had been lower than the rest of Europe, would you have thought it noteworthy in this thread? Be honest with yourself.

[sTeamTraen]

I wonder how much we can learn from any comparison of GDP growth rates given that all countries' economies just took a different-sized blow to the head from the pandemic.

[plodder]

Stop it all of you. There haven't been any valid GDP figures for any country for a year and a half.

"our GDP growth over the last quarter is the highest in the world because we ended lockdowns and no-one else did yay winners"

If it had been lower than the rest of Europe, would you have thought it noteworthy in this thread? Be honest with yourself.

You're the one banging on about GDP, fight your own battles.

[sheldrake]

"our GDP growth over the last quarter is the highest in the world because we ended lockdowns and no-one else did yay winners"

If it had been lower than the rest of Europe, would you have thought it noteworthy in this thread? Be honest with yourself.

You're the one banging on about GDP, fight your own battles.

Oh fair enough.

[sheldrake]

I wonder how much we can learn from any comparison of GDP growth rates given that all countries' economies just took a different-sized blow to the head from the pandemic.

Yes, it is a fuzzy picture. My only original point on this is that I think Covid lockdowns are a much bigger factor in most people's daily experience (fuel shortages or not etc..) than Brexit.

I get that I'm going to be in a political minority on a lot of subjects here but I would've thought by now most of you'd have started talking about how to get advantages out of brexit once you elect your ideal Labour govt. than still brooding over the results of 5 years ago looking for reasons to say 'told you so!'.

The next electable Labour government isn't going to win on a manifesto promise of re-applying to join the EU, even Starmer can see that.