Brexit Consequences

[sheldrake]

Have you tried meditation?

Yes. A lot, since I was a teenager.

It doesn't help me parse your terse dismissal of what I wrote right after you asked me what I disagreed with, though.

[Bird on a Fire]

Sorry.

In your reply, you acknowledge almost everything I mentioned, but structured in such a way as to present the appearance of disagreement.

I'm going to sleep on it now though.

[sheldrake]

Sorry.

In your reply, you acknowledge almost everything I mentioned, but structured in such a way as to present the appearance of disagreement.

I'm going to sleep on it now though.

I laid out my thoughts as clearly as I could to highlight that I did not think Brexit was not a significant factor here. I think some people (not necessarily you) do think that Brexit was a signficant, or even major, factor. Given that we're indeed debating this in the 'Brexit Consequences' thread, I think you should entertain that possibility, even if you were not one of those people.

My reply was not intended to troll or rile you on purpose.

[Millennie Al]

Ireland has a significantly more democratic system of governance.

I agree with that, for as long as we have the current house of lords.

It has nothing to do with the house of lords. It's because the UK electoral system is so bad. In the last election the Conservatives got 43.6% of the vote, yet ended up with a majority of 80 MPs - which is 56.2%. In the last Irish general election, the votes and seat percentages for the top three parties were: 24.5 -> 23.1, 22.2 -> 23.1, and 20.9 -> 21.9. Hugely more represetative.

[Millennie Al]

It will be interesting to see what effect the new direct shipping route to Morocco will have on fruit and veg in UK supermarkets.

https://www.thegrocer.co.uk/buying-and- ... 21.article

According to the article, it will make the journey much faster, so should exert a downward pressure on prices. In theory Brexit should not have made a difference as the EU, UK and Morocco are signatories to the TIR convention, so transit through the EU does not require customs checks - though in practice checks on other vehicles might cause unavoidable delays.

[Martin_B]

Stop it all of you. There haven't been any valid GDP figures for any country for a year and a half.

In 2019 our GDP grew faster than Germany, Japan and Italy too.

I recall that being linked with stockpiling in case of a no deal though...

If GDP growth was the main factor of deciding how good a country's economy was, Libya has the best-performing economy in the world.

[sheldrake]

Ireland has a significantly more democratic system of governance.

I agree with that, for as long as we have the current house of lords.

It has nothing to do with the house of lords. It's because the UK electoral system is so bad. In the last election the Conservatives got 43.6% of the vote, yet ended up with a majority of 80 MPs - which is 56.2%. In the last Irish general election, the votes and seat percentages for the top three parties were: 24.5 -> 23.1, 22.2 -> 23.1, and 20.9 -> 21.9. Hugely more represetative.

I prefer individual candidates to be accountable rather than parties. Party list systems for PR can weaken that.

[temptar]

Ireland does not use a list system. I am not sure safe seat Tories could be considered accountable. Unelected ministers like David Frost definitely don't look totally accountable.

[plodder]

Or Dominic Cummins. Or Carrie Symonds.

[sheldrake]

Ireland does not use a list system. I am not sure safe seat Tories could be considered accountable. Unelected ministers like David Frost definitely don't look totally accountable.

I agree with you about Frost. If a Tory is in a safe seat, it's because a significant majority of people in that place want to be represented by them, however. Neil Hamilton was ousted for corruption when he was in a formerly 'safe' seat for example.

People like Cummings and Carrie would exist in any electoral system, unfortunately.

[plodder]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58820599.amp

Intel not considering the UK for a chip factory due to Brexit. We’ve still got McCains in Wisbeach mind you.

[sheldrake]

In 2019 the UK was 3rd in the world for inward direct investment to businesses based here, after the US and Luxembourg

https://data.oecd.org/fdi/inward-fdi-st ... ountry.htm

[sheldrake]

Unemployment currently lower than at any point during the Blair or Brown governments https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlab ... s/mgsx/lms

[Woodchopper]

Unemployment currently lower than at any point during the Blair or Brown governments https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlab ... s/mgsx/lms

The employment rate is a better long term measure (its the proportion of the 16-64 age population who are in work). The problem with the unemployment rate is that it doesn't capture people who are not working and not looking for work.

I'm not disagreeing with your point, as the UK employment rate is higher now than it was between 1997 and 2010.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlab ... s/lf24/lms

[plodder]

be interesting to know how many “employed” people are also getting tax credits or UC, HB etc, ie their roles are subsidised by the state.

my impression is that a lot of jobs are marginal at best.

they won’t be working in the new intel factory, that’s for sure.

[plodder]

In 2019 the UK was 3rd in the world for inward direct investment to businesses based here, after the US and Luxembourg

https://data.oecd.org/fdi/inward-fdi-st ... ountry.htm

behind Luxembourg? what the f.ck are these figures? there’s only about 30,000 people in the whole country?

[sheldrake]

In 2019 the UK was 3rd in the world for inward direct investment to businesses based here, after the US and Luxembourg

https://data.oecd.org/fdi/inward-fdi-st ... ountry.htm

behind Luxembourg? what the f.ck are these figures? there’s only about 30,000 people in the whole country?

Luxembourg is a tax arbitrage centre under agreements Junker set up when he was the PM of Luxembourg. Lots of businesses that really do their business in other countries are registered as Luxembourg entities, or shift their profits to Luxembourg entities via 'licensing fees', e.g. Amazon in the UK.

Ireland's massive GDP per capita is simillarly b.llsh.t. You can see the difference when you look at actual Irish median income (significantly lower than the UK) vs Irish GDP per capita (almost 3 times the UK).

It's an inherent part of the single market that you are okay with tax arbitrage between EU countries. Now we've left we have more legal freedom to do something about it. Obviously a Tory government won't. A labour government that had put moaning about brexit behind it and seized some opportunities could. Just a thought.

[sheldrake]

be interesting to know how many “employed” people are also getting tax credits or UC, HB etc, ie their roles are subsidised by the state.

my impression is that a lot of jobs are marginal at best.

they won’t be working in the new intel factory, that’s for sure.

The Intel factory is unlikely have employed more than 10-20 people. Modern chip fabs are *extremely* automated. The profits would also likely be shunted to Luxembourg or Ireland (as a stepping stone to a caribbean tax haven) via licensing fees (we hardly made any profit on these chips gov'nor, we have to pay for the patent royalties for the design which is owned by Inteltec Dublin Ltd, sorry mate).

Yes, we do subsidise low pay for big corporations. Gordon brown really took a lead there. It's long been my belief that Blairite-style centre left politics is a ruse to convince well meaning people (like the people on this board) to support corporate economic interests at the expense of the working class. It is a tragedy that the Tory party has recently been more active in actually trying to raise pay for blue collar work than the labour party, even if it is only b.llsh.t rhetoric that Boris won't deliver against.

[plodder]

you could have a thread to yourself, where you demonstrate how clever you are to yourself, for the benefit of yourself. You’re knocking down your own strawmen.

[sheldrake]

you could have a thread to yourself, where you demonstrate how clever you are to yourself, for the benefit of yourself. You’re knocking down your own strawmen.

You said you didn't understand why a little country like Luxembourg had so much money flow into it. Now you do. You're welcome.

[temptar]

In 2019 the UK was 3rd in the world for inward direct investment to businesses based here, after the US and Luxembourg

https://data.oecd.org/fdi/inward-fdi-st ... ountry.htm

behind Luxembourg? what the f.ck are these figures? there’s only about 30,000 people in the whole country?

Almost 600,000 actually and almost half of them were not born in Luxembourg. In fact, it has focused on foreign direct investment since independence. An additional 200,000 travel in from surrounding countries to work. It punches far above its weight as do a lot of educated small countries. This brings both benefits and disadvantages of course. It is an expensive place to live but equally, the quality of life there is pretty good.

In terms of tax management it is significantly better/more transparent than a number of British protectorates, and of course there is the city of London to compare. Lux de facto outlawed letterbox companies a while ago. You actually have to be established there with offices and business management activities. They are also targeting data centre and space exploration interests. They got a hammering over their tax efficiency options following Luxleaks but tbh, the dust hasn't yet settled on the Pandora papers yet so let's not assume that the UK has much to teach Luxembourg on that front either. London is apparently not that pure.

It is an interesting country that is relatively agile, and flexible. I can understand foreign direct investment in there, it is crossroads located, particularly for road freight. Its population is generally well off, multilingual and it attracts a lot of young graduates to their financial and services industry.

Imagine how wealthy Britain could be if it had an efficient public service, focused on reinventing itself, a member of the EU and constantly looking to overcome its structural disadvantages. At the very least, you might even have free public transport.

In short: small nimble countries are different to big cumbersome ex-Empires.

[sheldrake]

In short: small nimble countries are different to big cumbersome ex-Empires.

It's a tax haven.

https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answer ... -haven.asp

I've worked in London on products for large tech companies where all the staff were in London or the US that were booking profits to Luxembourg or Ireland. That vast inward investment isn't going to actually building things or employing people in Luxembourg or Ireland.

[temptar]

Dude, the part you are missing is so are a lot of Britiah protectorates and the City of London. But you do you.

[sheldrake]

Dude, the part you are missing is so are a lot of Britiah protectorates and the City of London. But you do you.

I agree about the British protectorates (they don't show up on the inward investment figures) and the City (to a point, it doesn't actually have low taxes for business profits there, but a lot of city finance uses offshore structures).

The UK is the most popular destination for actual job-creating tech startup investment in Europe, for several years running.

[plodder]

Well, it's a good job nobody brought Luxembourg up as a country 2nd in the world for Some Important Metric where the UK is currently third thanks to Brexit or something.