Brexit Consequences

[plodder]

you just wait for the double dream hands.

(do not google double dream hands)

[Bird on a Fire]

Well that's how I'm imagining both of you from now on

[Millennie Al]

If a Tory is in a safe seat, it's because a significant majority of people in that place want to be represented by them,

Nonsense. It merely means that the people choosing the Tory candidate prefer them, while the voters are given the poor choice between this candidate or a non-Tory, which in a safe seat is hardly any choice at all.

[Millennie Al]

It's not a distraction tactic, it's a sincere attempt to get people to the left of the tories to look for opportunities to create something positive instead of just moaning about something that happened 5 years ago.

Well, it certainly is a distraction. Suppose a pilot was repeatedly told that if they took off in a plane it would crash and kill everyone on board. The pilot is stubbborn and stupid, so takes off. The plane crashes, but the pilot then tells everyone that their predictions were all wrong because it only killed five passengers and destroyed the plane. Such a pilot would be reviled as a total idiot for talking about the discrepancy in the predictions rather than the actual outcome.

[Millennie Al]

I think the main problem with this data is that it ignores the effect of unemployment on incomes by only looking at data for people with jobs. I will keep looking for something better.

How about you look for the data before making up your mind rather than spouting nonsense and then trying to find something to support it?

[sheldrake]

I think the main problem with this data is that it ignores the effect of unemployment on incomes by only looking at data for people with jobs. I will keep looking for something better.

How about you look for the data before making up your mind rather than spouting nonsense and then trying to find something to support it?

Welcome to my ignore list, angry little person

[plodder]

it was a fair comment IMO.

[sheldrake]

it was a fair comment IMO.

It would have been if I'd already made up my mind, but unlike some people here I'm actually willing to post data supporting my points (I have here) and examine data that counters my point, and think about it.

[plodder]

it was a fair comment IMO.

It would have been if I'd already made up my mind, but unlike some people here I'm actually willing to post data supporting my points (I have here) and examine data that counters my point, and think about it.

In other words: spam post, get caught out, think about it.

Just stop spam posting and pretending you've "thought about it" and the problem will go away.

[sheldrake]

dbl post

[sheldrake]

it was a fair comment IMO.

It would have been if I'd already made up my mind, but unlike some people here I'm actually willing to post data supporting my points (I have here) and examine data that counters my point, and think about it.

In other words: spam post, get caught out, think about it.

Just stop spam posting and pretending you've "thought about it" and the problem will go away.

TLDR; Take it to The Pit

No, it's not a spam post. I made a point with supporting data. Somebody reasonable presented a different data source. I'm willing to engage and think about it. I'd be enormously impressed if you did the same once in a while. Your attempts to police what I'm allowed to post are silly and a bit mad.

[jimbob]

be interesting to know how many “employed” people are also getting tax credits or UC, HB etc, ie their roles are subsidised by the state.

my impression is that a lot of jobs are marginal at best.

they won’t be working in the new intel factory, that’s for sure.

The Intel factory is unlikely have employed more than 10-20 people. Modern chip fabs are *extremely* automated. The profits would also likely be shunted to Luxembourg or Ireland (as a stepping stone to a caribbean tax haven) via licensing fees (we hardly made any profit on these chips gov'nor, we have to pay for the patent royalties for the design which is owned by Inteltec Dublin Ltd, sorry mate).

Yes, we do subsidise low pay for big corporations. Gordon brown really took a lead there. It's long been my belief that Blairite-style centre left politics is a ruse to convince well meaning people (like the people on this board) to support corporate economic interests at the expense of the working class. It is a tragedy that the Tory party has recently been more active in actually trying to raise pay for blue collar work than the labour party, even if it is only b.llsh.t rhetoric that Boris won't deliver against.

It's true that many modern fabs do indeed work lights-out - however they still require a sizeable support staff. It's just that they don't have many operators. Even our fairly small company employs over a thousand in our manufacturing sites in the UK.

You need lots of different engineers - even with Intel's model of keeping everything as close as possible to the mother fab in order to make transfers straightforward.

The fab campuses all look to employ thousands

https://www.exploreintel.com/


There is also a long commissioning process. You don't build and comission multibillion dollar fabs with a couple of workers and a joiner.

[sheldrake]

That's all fair, but I do think focussing on a single company is misleading. Overall, investment is increased, as is employment. For every intel story, there are Apple, Google etc.. stories on the other side, the big picture is told in economic metrics.

[Woodchopper]

That's all fair, but I do think focussing on a single company is misleading. Overall, investment is increased, as is employment. For every intel story, there are Apple, Google etc.. stories on the other side, the big picture is told in economic metrics.

The high point for foreign direct investment in the UK was 2017. The trend has been downward since then.
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kin ... investment
https://d3fy651gv2fhd3.cloudfront.net/e ... =300&w=600

[nekomatic]

It's not a distraction tactic, it's a sincere attempt to get people to the left of the tories to look for opportunities to create something positive instead of just moaning about something that happened 5 years ago.

The thing that happened five years ago was the referendum, but the policy decisions that have been made on the basis of that referendum result and the consequences of those policy decisions are still very much ongoing, as far as I can see, and quite legitimate topics for debate and disagreement.

Not to mention that the ERG types spent forty-three years moaning about the previous referendum result rather than looking for opportunities to create something positive with our EU membership.

[sheldrake]

That's all fair, but I do think focussing on a single company is misleading. Overall, investment is increased, as is employment. For every intel story, there are Apple, Google etc.. stories on the other side, the big picture is told in economic metrics.

The high point for foreign direct investment in the UK was 2017. The trend has been downward since then.
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kin ... investment
https://d3fy651gv2fhd3.cloudfront.net/e ... =300&w=600

This is net investment, which is reduced when people in the UK invest in other countries.

Overall though, you have a point, when I look at just investment in the UK, it looks fairly flat from 2016, then drops for the pandemic before showing strong recovery recently https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kin ... 0of%202005.

[sheldrake]

The thing that happened five years ago was the referendum, but the policy decisions that have been made on the basis of that referendum result and the consequences of those policy decisions are still very much ongoing, as far as I can see, and quite legitimate topics for debate and disagreement.

Sure, but it would be more useful to be constructive and make policy proposals rather than just look for reasons to be annoyed.

Not to mention that the ERG types spent forty-three years moaning about the previous referendum result rather than looking for opportunities to create something positive with our EU membership.

The people most resistant to EU membership back in the 70s were mostly on the left AIUI, people like Tony Benn and old labour voters like my dad. Conservative resistance to EU membership really got going as we came to sign Maastricht IIRC. Even Thatcher was in favour through most of the 80s.

[veravista]

Agree with Jimbob. A friend worked for Intel in Albuquerque and helped set up one of their new fab plants in Dublin along with a team of a couple of hundred. Don't think he ever saw a chip in final production in any of the plants because he was always off somewhere else before they were fully up and running. Went to the ill fated Siemens plant near Morpeth while it lasted. He now works for a company that makes the machines that make the wafers for the processors, and (probably coincidentally ) has moved to Portugal..

[Woodchopper]

That's all fair, but I do think focussing on a single company is misleading. Overall, investment is increased, as is employment. For every intel story, there are Apple, Google etc.. stories on the other side, the big picture is told in economic metrics.

The high point for foreign direct investment in the UK was 2017. The trend has been downward since then.
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kin ... investment
https://d3fy651gv2fhd3.cloudfront.net/e ... =300&w=600

This is net investment, which is reduced when people in the UK invest in other countries.

Overall though, you have a point, when I look at just investment in the UK, it looks fairly flat from 2016, then drops for the pandemic before showing strong recovery recently https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kin ... 0of%202005.

Fair enough. However we look at it, there hasn't been an upward trend in investment since 2016.

[sheldrake]

Fair enough. However we look at it, there hasn't been an upward trend in investment since 2016.

Would you agree that it's higher than everywhere in the EU except Luxembourg, and in Luxembourg's case that's mostly about tax avoidance?

[Pishwish]

be interesting to know how many “employed” people are also getting tax credits or UC, HB etc, ie their roles are subsidised by the state.

my impression is that a lot of jobs are marginal at best.

they won’t be working in the new intel factory, that’s for sure.

The Intel factory is unlikely have employed more than 10-20 people. Modern chip fabs are *extremely* automated. The profits would also likely be shunted to Luxembourg or Ireland (as a stepping stone to a caribbean tax haven) via licensing fees (we hardly made any profit on these chips gov'nor, we have to pay for the patent royalties for the design which is owned by Inteltec Dublin Ltd, sorry mate).

Yup, chip plants employ hardly any people

This build-out [of 2 fabs in Arizona] represents an investment of approximately $20 billion, which is expected to create over 3,000 permanent high-tech, high-wage jobs; over 3,000 construction jobs; and approximately 15,000 local long-term jobs.

And if you look at jimbob's handy interactive map, you'll see that Intel's Irish plant at Leixlip employs over 4,500 people.

[sheldrake]

Yup, hardly any people https://www.ft.com/content/f946703e-5d1 ... f30ff49d9b

'Intel vs overall UK employment and tech investment trends in UK' is something we did already chew over a fair bit.

[jimbob]

You do realise that it's not just direct employment, but the whole ecosystem of high tech companies that support such a fab?

I'm sure veravista would have similar experiences about the completely different but also large-scale high-tech manufacturing and engineering he has experience in - because it is not industry-specific.

[Pishwish]

Ah, so according to Sheldrake Intel was only going to employ 10-20 people at one of its European plants because an entirely different company employs 10 people at a particular location in its facility.

t's almost as if his reputation for arguing in bad -faith is well deserved.

[sheldrake]

You do realise that it's not just direct employment, but the whole ecosystem of high tech companies that support such a fab?

I'm sure veravista would have similar experiences about the completely different but also large-scale high-tech manufacturing and engineering he has experience in - because it is not industry-specific.

Yes, but UK investment is the healthiest of any major European economy. We're the number 1 economy for tech investment in Europe. We have lower unemployment now than we did before we voted out. People here have gone absolutely off the deep end about a single company whilst ignoring the bigger picture. It's almost as if some of you don't want leaving the EU to work.