Scrutable

Posted: **Thu Jul 04, 2024 10:50 pm**

What time do we expect the first shock result?

Posted: **Thu Jul 04, 2024 11:05 pm**

I miss Dimbleby.

Posted: **Thu Jul 04, 2024 11:06 pm**

Gonna get some kip. What time shall I set my alarm for?

Posted: **Thu Jul 04, 2024 11:07 pm**

00:30

Posted: **Fri Jul 05, 2024 12:08 am**

Something like this seems to be happening. On a low turnout too. I think Labour might end up with fewer total votes than in 2019.

monkey wrote: Thu Jun 20, 2024 7:13 pm YouGov have Labour on 36% in their latest boring poll - clicky.

I know about outliers and bias and all (which I have decided to ignore for this post), but I think things might be seen to be a bit f.cking stupid if Starmer gets a hulking great boner majority on the gain of just a few percentage points over Corbyn in 2019 (32%) or less than he got in 2017 (40%)?

At least it's not the USian electoral college, eh?

Posted: **Fri Jul 05, 2024 12:25 am**

I don't really know why it is a low turnout election.

I had assumed billions of angry voters wanting revenge for Boris parties and billions more wanting revenge for their higher mortgage payments.

Posted: **Fri Jul 05, 2024 12:28 am**

lpm wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 12:25 am I don't really know why it is a low turnout election.

I had assumed billions of angry voters wanting revenge for Boris parties and billions more wanting revenge for their higher mortgage payments.

Almost all the seats so far were safe Labour seats in previous elections. So turnout there may be depressed.

ETA: but overall, it seems turnout is down. A clear forecast result is probably some of it.

Mail voting issues might have a few percent effect?

Posted: **Fri Jul 05, 2024 12:31 am**

We should be moving on to Essex soon.

That tw.t Mark Francois, winning in Rayleigh

But chicken runner Richard Holden with a slight chance of losing Basildon.

Posted: **Fri Jul 05, 2024 12:35 am**

dyqik wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 12:28 am
lpm wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 12:25 am I don't really know why it is a low turnout election.

I had assumed billions of angry voters wanting revenge for Boris parties and billions more wanting revenge for their higher mortgage payments.
Almost all the seats so far were safe Labour seats in previous elections. So turnout there may be depressed.

ETA: but overall, it seems turnout is down. A clear forecast result is probably some of it.

Mail voting issues might have a few percent effect?

Voter ID might also be some of it. If not directly, then due to misinformation about it.

Also, it's summer, university graduation season, etc.

Posted: **Fri Jul 05, 2024 12:46 am**

lpm wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 12:31 am We should be moving on to Essex soon.

That tw.t Mark Francois, winning in Rayleigh

But chicken runner Richard Holden with a slight chance of losing Basildon.

Possible recount in Basildon.

But Git Francois has won.

Posted: **Fri Jul 05, 2024 12:48 am**

dyqik wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 12:35 am
dyqik wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 12:28 am
lpm wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 12:25 am I don't really know why it is a low turnout election.

I had assumed billions of angry voters wanting revenge for Boris parties and billions more wanting revenge for their higher mortgage payments.
Almost all the seats so far were safe Labour seats in previous elections. So turnout there may be depressed.

ETA: but overall, it seems turnout is down. A clear forecast result is probably some of it.

Mail voting issues might have a few percent effect?
Voter ID might also be some of it. If not directly, then due to misinformation about it.

Also, it's summer, university graduation season, etc.

In Harrogate, at least, it seems a lot of Tory voters stayed home, and a smaller number switched to Reform. The Lib Dems got more votes, labour the same.

Posted: **Fri Jul 05, 2024 12:53 am**

Hey Opti, Labour has won Stroud, kicking out the Tory.

Posted: **Fri Jul 05, 2024 12:57 am**

Counting is significantly slower than 2019.

Last time there were 30 seats by 01:45. We are only at 15, at nearly 02:00.

Posted: **Fri Jul 05, 2024 12:58 am**

lpm wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 12:57 am Counting is significantly slower than 2019.

Last time there were 30 seats by 01:45. We are only at 15, at nearly 02:00.

How many of the early results were safe Tory last time?

E.g., Basildon & Billericay seems to have gone to a full recount.

Posted: **Fri Jul 05, 2024 1:00 am**

Barnsley North - supposedly Reform in the exit poll - has been won pretty easily by Labour.

That was the racist Reform candidate.

I mean, the caught-out racist, rather than all other secretly racist candidates.

ETA LAB win by 8,000

I think this is the first significant miss by the exit poll.

Posted: **Fri Jul 05, 2024 1:04 am**

dyqik wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 12:58 am
lpm wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 12:57 am Counting is significantly slower than 2019.

Last time there were 30 seats by 01:45. We are only at 15, at nearly 02:00.
How many of the early results were safe Tory last time?

E.g., Basildon & Billericay seems to have gone to a full recount.

Last time there were a lot of Tory wins in the early seats - urban, northern red wall.

None of these were safe TOry are were always going to revert back, so it's not unexpected that Labour is racing into a 17-2-1 lead so far.

Posted: **Fri Jul 05, 2024 1:10 am**

And Reform haven't taken Castle Point from the Conservatives.

Early signs that Reform aren't converting their potentials into wins.

Posted: **Fri Jul 05, 2024 1:11 am**

lpm wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 1:00 am Barnsley North - supposedly Reform in the exit poll - has been won pretty easily by Labour.

That was the racist Reform candidate.

I mean, the caught-out racist, rather than all other secretly racist candidates.

ETA LAB win by 8,000

I think this is the first significant miss by the exit poll.

Harrogate was also a pretty big miss, with the Lib Dems beating the exit poll by 8% on vote share.

Posted: **Fri Jul 05, 2024 1:17 am**

And Reform haven't taken Barnsley South

Posted: **Fri Jul 05, 2024 1:18 am**

Ashfield

Lee Anderson

Reform win.

Oh well

Posted: **Fri Jul 05, 2024 1:28 am**

And now Reform have failed in Hartlepool, by quite a big gap.

They simply aren't meeting their 13 seat exit poll target.

Posted: **Fri Jul 05, 2024 1:29 am**

lpm wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 1:18 am Ashfield

Lee Anderson

Reform win.

Oh well

That was always going to happen. It's a hold rather than a gain.

The only way he might have lost is if the Green, independent and LD votes all went entirely to Labour, and the Tories kept their share (which put them in fourth with half the votes of the independent).

Posted: **Fri Jul 05, 2024 1:29 am**

lpm wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 1:17 am And Reform haven't taken Barnsley South

This is more important than Ashfield. The East Midlands has already been marked for fencing off and destroying. At least Yorkshire can still be salvaged.

Posted: **Fri Jul 05, 2024 1:30 am**

EPD, you were wise to get some sleep in.

In 2019 we had 100 results by now. But just 31 so far.

Posted: **Fri Jul 05, 2024 1:30 am**

Was Hartlepool a Reform win in the exit poll?

Scrutable

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