Scrutable

Lou Haigh is transport sec. Fantastic.

Oh and Reform have won a fifth seat

El Pollo Diablo wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 3:57 am Peter Bottomley has lost his seat, lol. Do we know who the new father/mother of the house will be?

It’s Diane Abbott. Yw

dyqik wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 3:56 pm

noggins wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 2:17 pm

dyqik wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 10:26 am Neither vote shares nor party policies and campaigns would be the same under a PR system. You can't completely change the game theory for both parties and the voters, and expect the same vote shares. Media coverage would probably shift substantially as well.

FTP is the glue holding the Tory party and the Labour party together. With PR the Socialist and the NatCons will split. And the libdems will probably wither.

I saw a comment that the effect of introducing PR in Australia was to make anything outside the two main parties unviable. In the UK, I'd expect a major realignment of what the two main party brands stood for as well as part of this. The Tories would probably have to ditch the more extreme racists if they wanted an overall majority, or a lasting coalition with the right of the Lib Dems. Labour would probably have to shed the more ardent socialists, and absorb the Lib Dem left and some of the Greens. Both would probably have to then form coalitions with those they've shed from time to time.

I'd expect things to be a little different in the UK with strongly regional parties still getting a share - SNP would probably get a few seats, Lib Dems might if they converted to a southern England only party, NI would do it's own thing.

If the UK were to have electoral politics similar to the rest of Europe then it would be very unusual if any party were to get a majority. As you write, each party would probably focus upon a narrower section of the electorate and work within a coalition to form a government. In terms of share of the vote the 2024 election looks pretty mainstream European. Obviously the distribution of seats is much different for Labour in particular, though the Conservatives, Liberals and nationalists got roughly similar numbers of seats compared to their share of the vote (eg within five percentage points).

It looks like the big beneficiary of a PR system would be Reform, or whatever the far right party would be called. The Greens would also get more more seats. There isn't an electorally successful UK radical left party, but PR would probably encourage the creation of one with about 5-10%.

Labour would at present be the biggest loser under PR. It and the Tories would probably settle down to about 20-25% of the vote each (assuming that the UK electorate votes like other Europeans in a PR system). Labour would form coalitions with the Greens and Liberals, the Conservatives could form coalition governments with the Faragist right, the liberals, or maybe Labour (eg German style grand coalition). One question would be whether other parties would be willing to be in a coalition with the far right. In the rest of Europe the mainstream right has usually been able to live with governing with the far right.

El Pollo Diablo wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 4:12 pm Oh and Reform have won a fifth seat

sh.t, that completes their astonishing landside victory (© BBC) to put them in joint sixth place instead of joint seventh place, and therefore by far the most important party in politics.

BBC Liz Truss Soundbite - scroll down a bit

"One of the reasons we got trounced is that we didn't do enough to deal with what we inherited fourteen years ago"
Words fail me!

Some good appointments including James Timpson as Prisons Minister

Stranger Mouse wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 6:55 pm Some good appointments including James Timpson as Prisons Minister

Given the support from Timpsons for ex-prisoners you mean? Yes, clearly has a longstanding interest in rehabilitation.

Stranger Mouse wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 2:37 pm Will Starmer as PM clean up Parliament to a greater or lesser extent or will it be the same old sh.t show.

If he does improve standards will Farage and his ilk come a cropper. I’m thinking of the amount of Short Money he is likely to get for a lot of votes but only a few seats.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland- ... s-65375842

Apparently they will hit a funding cap. lol. https://x.com/edwinhayward/status/18093 ... 05473?s=61

El Pollo Diablo wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 3:57 am Peter Bottomley has lost his seat, lol. Do we know who the new father/mother of the house will be?

Edward Leigh
https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics ... on-wipeout

IvanV wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 9:20 am

TopBadger wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 9:10 am Farage is great at single issue politics (first Brexit, now Immigration) but I'd bet less than 10% of Reform voters know his position on the NHS (which is to sell it off) and wouldn't want that to happen. Which just shows that a large number of people either aren't really paying attention at all.

Despite getting so few seats from so much vote, I don't see Nigel Farage calling for PR. I don't think he's interested in having 100 seats in parliament. He's more interested in taking over or replacing the Tories, when he would then himself benefit from the FPTP advantage enjoyed in much of Britain by a single dominant right wing party, as the Tories have tended to be. His party did "benefit" from the more nearly PR-like voting system for the European Parliament, to get several MEPs. But he didn't seem to know what to do with them, except to fiddle the expenses system to get party funding money. Bit harder to do that in Westminster.

PR is in the Reform UK manifesto... I mean "contract" (as is HoL reform to an elected second chamber)

A simple party list system would be very much in Farage's favour: he would always be at the top of his party's list and have a job for life.

I'm still reasonably convinced that STV with multi-member constituencies is a balance between full proportionality and keeping the connection between MPs and their constituents, but especially that it lets voters express a preference between candidates within the same party, meaning you could vote out an MP who'd been, say, fiddling expenses without voting against the party you want in power.

IvanV wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 9:20 am

TopBadger wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 9:10 am Farage is great at single issue politics (first Brexit, now Immigration) but I'd bet less than 10% of Reform voters know his position on the NHS (which is to sell it off) and wouldn't want that to happen. Which just shows that a large number of people either aren't really paying attention at all.

Despite getting so few seats from so much vote, I don't see Nigel Farage calling for PR. I don't think he's interested in having 100 seats in parliament. He's more interested in taking over or replacing the Tories, when he would then himself benefit from the FPTP advantage enjoyed in much of Britain by a single dominant right wing party, as the Tories have tended to be. His party did "benefit" from the more nearly PR-like voting system for the European Parliament, to get several MEPs. But he didn't seem to know what to do with them, except to fiddle the expenses system to get party funding money. Bit harder to do that in Westminster.

PR is in the Reform UK manifesto... I mean "contract" (as is HoL reform to an elected second chamber)

A simple party list system would be very much in Farage's favour: he would always be at the top of his party's list and have a job for life.

I'm still reasonably convinced that STV with multi-member constituencies is a balance between full proportionality and keeping the connection between MPs and their constituents, but especially that it lets voters express a preference between candidates within the same party, meaning you could vote out an MP who'd been, say, fiddling expenses without voting against the party you want in power.

tenchboy wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 6:20 pm BBC Liz Truss Soundbite - scroll down a bit

"One of the reasons we got trounced is that we didn't do enough to deal with what we inherited fourteen years ago"
Words fail me!

At the last local hustings Fox tried to blame the current problems on Labour and the pandemic. He was absolutely silent about the impact of Brexit or Truss, and waxed poetic about the importance of international trade and collaboration in dealing with the issues that are facing us. Which was f.cking ironic given he was an arch brexiter who has played a significant role in reducing our influence on the international stage. In his opening statement, out of nowhere, he also mentioned wanting to reduce abortion limits to 22 weeks which honestly terrified me. It's incredible to think he's gone.

philbo wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 8:54 pm

IvanV wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 9:20 am

TopBadger wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 9:10 am Farage is great at single issue politics (first Brexit, now Immigration) but I'd bet less than 10% of Reform voters know his position on the NHS (which is to sell it off) and wouldn't want that to happen. Which just shows that a large number of people either aren't really paying attention at all.

Despite getting so few seats from so much vote, I don't see Nigel Farage calling for PR. I don't think he's interested in having 100 seats in parliament. He's more interested in taking over or replacing the Tories, when he would then himself benefit from the FPTP advantage enjoyed in much of Britain by a single dominant right wing party, as the Tories have tended to be. His party did "benefit" from the more nearly PR-like voting system for the European Parliament, to get several MEPs. But he didn't seem to know what to do with them, except to fiddle the expenses system to get party funding money. Bit harder to do that in Westminster.

PR is in the Reform UK manifesto... I mean "contract" (as is HoL reform to an elected second chamber)

A simple party list system would be very much in Farage's favour: he would always be at the top of his party's list and have a job for life.

I'm still reasonably convinced that STV with multi-member constituencies is a balance between full proportionality and keeping the connection between MPs and their constituents, but especially that it lets voters express a preference between candidates within the same party, meaning you could vote out an MP who'd been, say, fiddling expenses without voting against the party you want in power.

This is my preferred method too. Seems to work nicely enough in Ireland.

philbo wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 8:53 pm PR is in the Reform UK manifesto... I mean "contract" (as is HoL reform to an elected second chamber)

If it's a contract does that mean we can sue them?

TimW wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 9:37 pm

philbo wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 8:53 pm PR is in the Reform UK manifesto... I mean "contract" (as is HoL reform to an elected second chamber)

If it's a contract does that mean we can sue them?

I guess we'd have to fulfil our side first, which would probably mean electing them.

Though given that there are four of them elected, maybe it'd be worth suing them for breach of contract and see how quickly they decide it's not *that* sort of contract

philbo wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 9:53 pm

TimW wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 9:37 pm

philbo wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 8:53 pm PR is in the Reform UK manifesto... I mean "contract" (as is HoL reform to an elected second chamber)

If it's a contract does that mean we can sue them?

I guess we'd have to fulfil our side first, which would probably mean electing them.

Though given that there are four of them elected, maybe it'd be worth suing them for breach of contract and see how quickly they decide it's not *that* sort of contract

5. Sorry.

Philbo wrote,
"A simple party list system would be very much in Farage's favour: he would always be at the top of his party's list and have a job for life."
Judging by his behaviour as an MEP, I think you mean an income for life,

I'm looking forward to this kind of chaos in the energy security and net zero brief.

https://x.com/10DowningStreet/status/18 ... MJyVA&s=19

dyqik wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 10:33 pm I'm looking forward to this kind of chaos in the energy security and net zero brief.

https://x.com/10DowningStreet/status/18 ... MJyVA&s=19

I have a nephew in law (if such a thing exists) in the department - I'm confident it'll be fine.

Gfamily wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 10:40 pm

dyqik wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 10:33 pm I'm looking forward to this kind of chaos in the energy security and net zero brief.

https://x.com/10DowningStreet/status/18 ... MJyVA&s=19

I have a nephew in law (if such a thing exists) in the department - I'm confident it'll be fine.

Just so long as he manages to eat a plant based bacon sandwich.

dyqik wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 10:48 pm

Gfamily wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 10:40 pm

dyqik wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 10:33 pm I'm looking forward to this kind of chaos in the energy security and net zero brief.

https://x.com/10DowningStreet/status/18 ... MJyVA&s=19

I have a nephew in law (if such a thing exists) in the department - I'm confident it'll be fine.

Just so long as he manages to eat a plant based bacon sandwich.

Not eating such things would be as valuable

Most lovely take on the appointment of ministers

https://x.com/GeoffLloyd/status/1809322805298966971

Oh god I'm going to have to rehab from political excitement aren't i

Like, the news is just showing stuff about non-politics. Wtf?

lpm wrote: Thu Jul 04, 2024 1:19 pm It's brilliant! I love it. This one is even better!

https://x.com/Piers_Corbyn/status/1808463384695750940

The custard pies on the clowns! The train announcement!

Piers got 403 votes. Wasn't enough to win. But he seemed to have a lovely time, which is the main thing.