Scrutable

Bird on a Fire wrote: Sat Mar 14, 2020 5:01 pmMy neighbour is a DJ who gets a lot of work from clubs in Lisbon. Following discussion with his usual employers, he is expecting to be out of work for at least a few months over the summer, which is a bit of a shitter as his first kid is going to be born any day.

TheScientificHippy wrote: Sat Mar 14, 2020 6:10 pm Are we supposed to be social distancing now. I am confused. I have no symptoms and do not need to self isolate. I work for the NHS and so need to be in more than ever, in fact I cancelled my annual leave. I feel I should be supporting my local businesses while I can. Should I only be going out for essentials or is visiting a restaurant okay

KAJ wrote: Sat Mar 14, 2020 5:22 pm
I guess the kit needed to nurse severe COVID-19 cases (mainly respirators?) differs from that used by field hospitals (mainly trauma cases?).
But my guesses aren't reliable.

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sTeamTraen wrote: Sat Mar 14, 2020 6:03 pm

Bird on a Fire wrote: Sat Mar 14, 2020 5:01 pmMy neighbour is a DJ who gets a lot of work from clubs in Lisbon. Following discussion with his usual employers, he is expecting to be out of work for at least a few months over the summer, which is a bit of a shitter as his first kid is going to be born any day.

I don't know if one can short an entire industry, but I wonder what would happen economically if nobody from the north of Europe went to Portugal or Spain for an entire summer?

Lew Dolby wrote: Sat Mar 14, 2020 5:21 pm BBC News just on - 10 more deaths !!

I wish they'd be more specific about what "underlying conditions" means in these and other serious cases. Are the victims people with a decade of heart disease behind them or just (just ?!) type-2 diabetics ??

tenchboy wrote: Sat Mar 14, 2020 7:02 pm


T'ent offen that appens..png

shpalman wrote: Sat Mar 14, 2020 6:48 pm You can't possibly flatten the curve enough to get a substantial fraction of the population through the ICU in one season

badger wrote: Sat Mar 14, 2020 7:49 pm SAGE to communicate more betterly.

https://twitter.com/janemerrick23/statu ... 35297?s=20

So we can have the same arguments with better data

lpm wrote: Sat Mar 14, 2020 9:02 pm I think some people might like these in a specific support thread.

They also estimated that the intervention would cost between £0·2 billion and £1·2 billion per week, with the total cost of a 12-week school closure in the range 0·2–1·0% of gross domestic product

assuming 2·5 person days per week time loss for affected households and 5 days per week for teachers during school closure, they estimated a high economic cost of school closure (about US$2·7 million per 1000 population or 6% of GDP) and that strategies involving school closure would be between 14 and 21 times as costly as intervention strategies with antiviral drugs or prevaccination alone.

A survey was done to assess how families responded to the school closure.23 In this rural area where more than 50% of households have at least one adult that does not work outside the home or can work from home, the intervention caused little disruption, with only 10% of the households reporting having to make special childcare arrangements. Of course, the outcome would likely have been different if the proportion of working parents were as high as it is in many urban settings. Also there will almost certainly be differences in how parents respond to school closure lasting 1–2 weeks versus the 2–3 months that could be needed with proactive closure (panel 1) in a pandemic.

In many industrialised countries, social programmes targeting underprivileged children rely on school facilities. For example, in 2004 in the USA, the national school lunch programme and the school breakfast programme delivered daily meals to 29·0 million and 8·9 million children, respectively; half of the lunches served were free and an additional 10% were served at a reduced price.20 Closing schools without preparation would interrupt those programmes, with adverse consequences for vulnerable children and families

Berkman also discusses the risks associated with so-called self-care, defined as leaving a child in his or her own care or in the care of a sibling younger than 13 years old.20 Self-care has been associated with risk behaviours including increased adverse peer pressure, underage drinking, and drug use.

A survey of over 5000 hospital doctors and nurses by the UK Department of Health found that 77% of respondents were women (78% of UK doctors and nurses are women), 50% of respondents had a dependent child under 16, and 21% of respondents reported they would likely be absent from work if schools closed during a pandemic.

sTeamTraen wrote: Sat Mar 14, 2020 8:12 pm

badger wrote: Sat Mar 14, 2020 7:49 pm SAGE to communicate more betterly.

https://twitter.com/janemerrick23/statu ... 35297?s=20

So we can have the same arguments with better data

Oh, it's a Government committee. I thought you meant the scholarly publisher of the same name (including the all caps bit) that recently published an article by a 9/11 truther.

mikeh wrote: Sat Mar 14, 2020 9:25 pm And, this is something that has been pissing me off a bit, and given a few recent posts in this thread, I'm going to say it now

We talked upthread about the social side of the outbreak, for example the elderly home alone, anxiety, loneliness and things like that.
As well as the behavioural science input into CMO policy being so important to mitigate that, the social side of the general public is important in this outbreak. You don't just shut down people's lives and say "screw them, put up with it". People are stressed, scared, uncertain.

And people, including small numbers on this forum, have been dismissive of that.

To those people - stop it. Wind your necks in. People's feelings are important. Another thread for solidarity reasons sounds like a good idea to me (though happy to take guidance from mods and those who were involved in the similar thread on the old forum).

A small starter on that - Dr Petra is worth following on twitter, see this thread from today as an example https://twitter.com/DrPetra/status/1238796429709148160 . Online support is available, albeit sometimes hard to see through the noise.

Opti wrote: Sat Mar 14, 2020 9:31 pm As long as that's not pointed at me

you're a f.cking star, mikeh. For real.

Stephanie wrote: Sat Mar 14, 2020 9:43 pm thanks for this, mike - not just a fish-feeding tv star, eh?

mikeh wrote: Sat Mar 14, 2020 9:17 pm And we talked upthread a little bit about impact on NHS workforce if schools closed

A survey of over 5000 hospital doctors and nurses by the UK Department of Health found that 77% of respondents were women (78% of UK doctors and nurses are women), 50% of respondents had a dependent child under 16, and 21% of respondents reported they would likely be absent from work if schools closed during a pandemic.

mikeh wrote: Sat Mar 14, 2020 9:25 pm And, this is something that has been pissing me off a bit, and given a few recent posts in this thread, I'm going to say it now

We talked upthread about the social side of the outbreak, for example the elderly home alone, anxiety, loneliness and things like that.
As well as the behavioural science input into CMO policy being so important to mitigate that, the social side of the general public is important in this outbreak. You don't just shut down people's lives and say "screw them, put up with it". People are stressed, scared, uncertain.

And people, including small numbers on this forum, have been dismissive of that.

To those people - stop it. Wind your necks in. People's feelings are important. Another thread for solidarity reasons sounds like a good idea to me (though happy to take guidance from mods and those who were involved in the similar thread on the old forum).

A small starter on that - Dr Petra is worth following on twitter, see this thread from today as an example https://twitter.com/DrPetra/status/1238796429709148160 . Online support is available, albeit sometimes hard to see through the noise.

Woodchopper wrote: Sat Mar 14, 2020 10:06 pm

mikeh wrote: Sat Mar 14, 2020 9:17 pm And we talked upthread a little bit about impact on NHS workforce if schools closed

A survey of over 5000 hospital doctors and nurses by the UK Department of Health found that 77% of respondents were women (78% of UK doctors and nurses are women), 50% of respondents had a dependent child under 16, and 21% of respondents reported they would likely be absent from work if schools closed during a pandemic.

On that, up here the government has organized childcare for all healthcare personnel ETA after having closed all the schools and kindergartens. That seems to be a good compromise between preventing infection spreading and allowing the parents to get to work in the hospitals.