Scrutable

WFJ wrote: Fri Mar 04, 2022 9:05 am According to Dominic Raab, Putin might end up in prison because of the invasion. Is he actually stupid enough to believe this.

WFJ wrote: Fri Mar 04, 2022 9:05 am According to Dominic Raab, Putin might end up in prison because of the invasion. Is he actually stupid enough to believe this.

EACLucifer wrote: Fri Mar 04, 2022 9:17 am

WFJ wrote: Fri Mar 04, 2022 9:05 am According to Dominic Raab, Putin might end up in prison because of the invasion. Is he actually stupid enough to believe this.

Never ask "Is Dominic Raab stupid enough to...", for the answer is always yes.

I doubt anyone deposing him would risk leaving him alive, as an alive Putin could potentially be freed before he ever got to the Hague, and there's no way he'd ever end up there unless deposed.

jimbob wrote: Fri Mar 04, 2022 9:14 am
I think there's now a question about whether Putin might get deposed, which wasn't there a couple of months ago. So, maybe 25% chance of him losing power.

But he'd not be in prison except very briefly.

jimbob wrote: Fri Mar 04, 2022 9:59 am

EACLucifer wrote: Fri Mar 04, 2022 9:17 am

WFJ wrote: Fri Mar 04, 2022 9:05 am According to Dominic Raab, Putin might end up in prison because of the invasion. Is he actually stupid enough to believe this.

Never ask "Is Dominic Raab stupid enough to...", for the answer is always yes.

I doubt anyone deposing him would risk leaving him alive, as an alive Putin could potentially be freed before he ever got to the Hague, and there's no way he'd ever end up there unless deposed.

indeed - that's why I meant by "very briefly"

jimbob wrote: Fri Mar 04, 2022 9:14 am
I think there's now a question about whether Putin might get deposed, which wasn't there a couple of months ago. So, maybe 25% chance of him losing power.

But he'd not be in prison except very briefly.

Woodchopper wrote: Sun Feb 27, 2022 11:51 am

bjn wrote: Sun Feb 27, 2022 11:36 am We'll I've written a strongly worded letter to my MP encouraging her to encourage the government to do more and especially not be arse hats when it comes to accepting refugees.

Does anyone know of any practical routes to assistance? ie: where can I send some money to help the Ukrainians.

Lots of suggestions here: https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/commen ... ame=iossmf

EACLucifer wrote: Fri Mar 04, 2022 7:10 am

Woodchopper wrote: Fri Mar 04, 2022 6:17 am You see lots of maps showing areas of Russian control in Ukraine.

This is probably the most accurate as the Russian invaders have kept to the major roads and haven’t attempted to control the countryside. They basically control a section of road while their forces are driving on it. Hence the many videos of Ukrainian farmers towing away abandoned Russian military vehicles.

88A586BA-19B8-40CF-B9DE-E8F67569BE02.jpeg
Source: https://twitter.com/nrg8000/status/1499 ... 23656?s=21

As mentioned before the invasion, if Russia is to try to control large parts of Ukrainian territory it’s going to have to allocate a lot of troops to do that. It may have to if it faces unsustainable losses to its supply convoys from Ukrainian ambushes.However Russia doesn’t have enough troops in the theatre to do that and also take Kyiv and other major cities. If it’s going to try it’ll have to transfer in large numbers of additional troops, which will probably entail calling up reserves.

Someone somewhere observed a while back it was as if they were attempting blitzkrieg but forgot everything except the first echelon. In blitzkrieg/deep battle/manouevre warfare, the first echelon punches a bunch of holes in the line and races forward, bypassing strongly held positions in order to get at the adversary's rear, so as to isolate those that have been bypassed. Second and third echelons then assault those bypassed strongpoints and secure the areas that have been captured.

The Russians got the first bit right, but they didn't bother with the rest. Sure, they penetrated the Ukrainian frontline, but they effectively penetrated their own frontline in the process. That's left their supply lines extremely vulnerable. When you see a map showing shaded areas supposedly under Russian control, it's probably better to view it as places the Russians have crossed. They haven't taken the time to ensure that area is not filled with Ukrainian regular forces, special forces, territorials and angry farmers armed with looted weapons.

An example would be Chernihiv. The Russians passed Chernihiv in the first day or two. Russian convoys around Chernihiv are getting hit regularly, and it's hardly the only example.

The entire concept of VDV, Russian paratroopers makes total sense if we consider that they are not so much soldiers as the riot police. They don't need to fight other regular armies, they need to suppress disorganised mutinies and protests.

Since paratroopers are the shock troops of regime, they absolutely need to look scary to scare off any mutineers. Their entire legendary status is one huge psyop. That's not a secret, really well-trained forces such as those of GRU consider these guys to be fraudsters.

...

Let's be honest, Kremlin sees Ukraine as a rebel province. The very existence of this country is mutiny. And if you need to suppress a riot, you send the riot police. So Putin sent there paratroopers and they were completely routed. Because they didn't expect organised resistance.

Woodchopper wrote: Fri Mar 04, 2022 10:05 am

Woodchopper wrote: Sun Feb 27, 2022 11:51 am

bjn wrote: Sun Feb 27, 2022 11:36 am We'll I've written a strongly worded letter to my MP encouraging her to encourage the government to do more and especially not be arse hats when it comes to accepting refugees.

Does anyone know of any practical routes to assistance? ie: where can I send some money to help the Ukrainians.

Lots of suggestions here: https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/commen ... ame=iossmf

More information on how to help Ukraine here: https://how-to-help-ukraine-now.super.site/

Grumble wrote: Fri Mar 04, 2022 8:47 am I enjoy the videos of farmers towing tanks, but surely they’d be better off disabling them permanently and leaving them as roadblocks?

plodder wrote: Fri Mar 04, 2022 1:11 pm

Grumble wrote: Fri Mar 04, 2022 8:47 am I enjoy the videos of farmers towing tanks, but surely they’d be better off disabling them permanently and leaving them as roadblocks?

you're forgetting the universal attitude of gert orf moi larrrnd

El Pollo Diablo wrote: Fri Mar 04, 2022 1:35 pm Anyone know why Eritrea is so supportive of Russia?

tenchboy wrote: Fri Mar 04, 2022 1:21 pm

plodder wrote: Fri Mar 04, 2022 1:11 pm

Grumble wrote: Fri Mar 04, 2022 8:47 am I enjoy the videos of farmers towing tanks, but surely they’d be better off disabling them permanently and leaving them as roadblocks?

you're forgetting the universal attitude of gert orf moi larrrnd

... which is trumped by the universal attitude of <looks around> "we'll 'ave that on the way oom if ther's no-one about"

monkey wrote: Fri Mar 04, 2022 1:55 pm

El Pollo Diablo wrote: Fri Mar 04, 2022 1:35 pm Anyone know why Eritrea is so supportive of Russia?

Nope. I've been wondering about that too.

Here's an NYT article that talks about African-Russian relations in general though: clicky

monkey wrote: Fri Mar 04, 2022 1:55 pm

El Pollo Diablo wrote: Fri Mar 04, 2022 1:35 pm Anyone know why Eritrea is so supportive of Russia?

Nope. I've been wondering about that too.

Here's an NYT article that talks about African-Russian relations in general though: clicky

jimbob wrote: Fri Mar 04, 2022 5:20 pm This, about 50 seconds in isn't likely to help Putin seem strong and in command of the situation - or even what he's supposed to do in his own scripted TV appearance.

Can't be good for his medium-term prospects.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=auJxrmNErIA

sTeamTraen wrote: Fri Mar 04, 2022 7:13 pm I bought iodine tablets today. They only had "supplement"-type ones, but the pharmacist told me that next week they will be getting some high-dose ones of the kind that might be prescribed for thyroid issues. He didn't say if there had been an uptick in demand.

Basically I am assuming that it is now more likely than not (with the less-than-half representing the situation where someone bumps off Putin) that there will be a strategic nuclear exchange with several hundred million Europeans ending up dead in the next 3-6 months. If I survived that then I don't know if I would want to go on living. But it would seem silly to die of radiation poisoning (and yes, I know that iodine won't be the only thing I'll need) if they only, say, blow up Barcelona and I'm sitting downwind of the fallout.

Mrs sTeamTraen and I have our first trip to the UK for over two years planned for this coming Wednesday, based near London. I've told her I'll take a view on Tuesday on whether I'm going or not. Perhaps it would be better to be closer to ground zero rather than further away.

Trinucleus wrote: Fri Mar 04, 2022 7:26 pm Where Putin's mates have nice houses and their kids are at school?

Brightonian wrote: Fri Mar 04, 2022 7:30 pm Google Trends shows seaches for iodine tablets have jumped from less than 10 to around 90 in the last two weeks (don't know what the scale is). Presumably two weeks ago was when Putin suddenly mentioned nukes.

sTeamTraen wrote: Fri Mar 04, 2022 7:13 pm I bought iodine tablets today. They only had "supplement"-type ones, but the pharmacist told me that next week they will be getting some high-dose ones of the kind that might be prescribed for thyroid issues. He didn't say if there had been an uptick in demand.

Basically I am assuming that it is now more likely than not (with the less-than-half representing the situation where someone bumps off Putin) that there will be a strategic nuclear exchange with several hundred million Europeans ending up dead in the next 3-6 months. If I survived that then I don't know if I would want to go on living. But it would seem silly to die of radiation poisoning (and yes, I know that iodine won't be the only thing I'll need) if they only, say, blow up Barcelona and I'm sitting downwind of the fallout.

Mrs sTeamTraen and I have our first trip to the UK for over two years planned for this coming Wednesday, based near London. I've told her I'll take a view on Tuesday on whether I'm going or not. Perhaps it would be better to be closer to ground zero rather than further away.

Brightonian wrote: Fri Mar 04, 2022 7:30 pm Google Trends shows seaches for iodine tablets have jumped from less than 10 to around 90 in the last two weeks (don't know what the scale is). Presumably two weeks ago was when Putin suddenly mentioned nukes.