Scrutable

jimbob wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2026 10:35 pm

Lew Dolby wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2026 12:52 pm Surely occupying Khark only "controls" the oil in the sense of stopping its export. no oil comes out of the ground on Khark. Iran will just shut the pipes on the mainland.

Or am I misunderstanding ??

It's stupid. Presumably the intent is to act as economic leverage on Iran, because it would prevent Iran from exporting most of its oil.

But that would be a really bad way of achieving that effect.

It would risk casualties in capturing the island. Presumably Trump wants an Iranian regime that's friendly. And would want the ability to hand a working facility as some leverage to the Iranian regime. So there's a massive risk of damage to the facility. And it would need garrisoning, so a nice target for any Iranian attacks.

However the economic leverage from holding Kharg Island would be preventing Iranian oil reaching any markets. The USN could sit in the Gulf of Oman, and interdict any tankers from Iran (not just Kharg Island) with a far lower risk of casualties and far easier to modulate the blockade and turn it on or off.

bjn wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2026 8:39 am

jimbob wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2026 10:35 pm

Lew Dolby wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2026 12:52 pm Surely occupying Khark only "controls" the oil in the sense of stopping its export. no oil comes out of the ground on Khark. Iran will just shut the pipes on the mainland.

Or am I misunderstanding ??

It's stupid. Presumably the intent is to act as economic leverage on Iran, because it would prevent Iran from exporting most of its oil.

But that would be a really bad way of achieving that effect.

It would risk casualties in capturing the island. Presumably Trump wants an Iranian regime that's friendly. And would want the ability to hand a working facility as some leverage to the Iranian regime. So there's a massive risk of damage to the facility. And it would need garrisoning, so a nice target for any Iranian attacks.

However the economic leverage from holding Kharg Island would be preventing Iranian oil reaching any markets. The USN could sit in the Gulf of Oman, and interdict any tankers from Iran (not just Kharg Island) with a far lower risk of casualties and far easier to modulate the blockade and turn it on or off.

As pointed out above, to get the ships with the marines on it to Kharg Island means getting them through the straights. That will be contested and could go very badly with a few lucky drone strikes.