Trump 2.0

[bolo]

And that's why the courts will strike this down in an instant. Antisemitism is protected by the First Amendment.

It's not clear to me that the courts will strike it down quite so easily as that. The Administration isn't proposing to prosecute constitutionally protected protests. It's proposing to withhold grants and contracts from universities that fail to prevent them. Universities are not legally entitled to those grants and contracts, so the government has a lot more leeway to decide how to award them and potentially rescind them.

See, for example, the Department of Transportation's longstanding policy to withhold highway funding from states that fail to enact the national speed limit.

Public universities, as state government entities, may be less able to legally prevent constitutionally protected protests, so for them, there may be a legal argument against requiring an illegal action as a prerequisite for receiving a grant. Private universities are probably less constrained, at least in some states.

So IABMCTT, I think, although I admit IANAL.

[IvanV]

Musk/Trump are not saving huge amounts of money - there's a lot of analysis around showing that they are saving rather small amounts of money. Rather they are, above all, trying to take money away from people they really don't like, even if it is relatively small beer in the overall business of money-saving.

As the Economist pointed out, if they are to save anything like the sums of money they are talking about, £500bn to £2,500bn, they will need to start cutting not just staff and small stuff, but really big stuff. Staff costs in government employees are only about 4% of federal spending. One of the biggest things that Trump hasn't said is protected is Medicaid. That's the federally part-funded medical assistance for the poor and infirm, as opposed to Medicare for the old, which Trump says is protected. Since Medicaid is part state-funded, what cuts occur on the ground depend on the attitude of the individual states to the federal funding cuts. The Economist considers a maximally feasible cut to Medicaid to be not quite £100bn/yr, which is still a long way to go to cuts of the sizes mentioned. And, depending on the attitude of the states, could potentially remove insurance from up to 1/3 of Medicaid customers, though in practice will probably not be quite that much.

A lot of spending is congressionally directed, and those directions are passed as US law. So those payments are legally difficult to stop. One Trump appointee was recently spotted in public trying to justify stopping congress-directed FEMA payments to New York State on the innovative grounds that "Congress shouldn't have done that". Though when he ended up in court over that attempted cut, he had the sense not to mention that, but instead alleged, without any good source, that some of the money was leaking to organised crime. He failed to impress the judge with this. And doubtless the incident related to federal funds going to New York State, precisely because it was New York State. (Source: youtube video by Legal Eagle, 23mins)

[Stranger Mouse]

What is an illegal protest? Regular protests are protected by the Constitution. And "allow" means what exactly? A university cannot allow illegal protests by definition.

For the purposes of Trump's edict, an "illegal protest" is a pro-Palestinian protest which incorporates illegalities such as antisemitism or support for illegal terrorist organisations. I think it likely that the current administration will find those illegalities in just about any pro-Palestinian protest.

"Allow" means "fails to prevent".

And that's why the courts will strike this down in an instant. Antisemitism is protected by the First Amendment.

Bearing in mind that the Supreme Court only upheld by a 5 to 4 that the government should pay its bills for contracted work that has been completed I wish I could share your confidence.

[dyqik]

For the purposes of Trump's edict, an "illegal protest" is a pro-Palestinian protest which incorporates illegalities such as antisemitism or support for illegal terrorist organisations. I think it likely that the current administration will find those illegalities in just about any pro-Palestinian protest.

"Allow" means "fails to prevent".

And that's why the courts will strike this down in an instant. Antisemitism is protected by the First Amendment.

Bearing in mind that the Supreme Court only upheld by a 5 to 4 that the government should pay its bills for contracted work that has been completed I wish I could share your confidence.

There's an awful lot of Trumpers in trouble if antisemitism isn't protected by the 1A...

[bjn]

Musk/Trump are not saving huge amounts of money - there's a lot of analysis around showing that they are saving rather small amounts of money. Rather they are, above all, trying to take money away from people they really don't like, even if it is relatively small beer in the overall business of money-saving.

As the Economist pointed out, if they are to save anything like the sums of money they are talking about, £500bn to £2,500bn, they will need to start cutting not just staff and small stuff, but really big stuff. Staff costs in government employees are only about 4% of federal spending. One of the biggest things that Trump hasn't said is protected is Medicaid. That's the federally part-funded medical assistance for the poor and infirm, as opposed to Medicare for the old, which Trump says is protected. Since Medicaid is part state-funded, what cuts occur on the ground depend on the attitude of the individual states to the federal funding cuts. The Economist considers a maximally feasible cut to Medicaid to be not quite £100bn/yr, which is still a long way to go to cuts of the sizes mentioned. And, depending on the attitude of the states, could potentially remove insurance from up to 1/3 of Medicaid customers, though in practice will probably not be quite that much.

A lot of spending is congressionally directed, and those directions are passed as US law. So those payments are legally difficult to stop. One Trump appointee was recently spotted in public trying to justify stopping congress-directed FEMA payments to New York State on the innovative grounds that "Congress shouldn't have done that". Though when he ended up in court over that attempted cut, he had the sense not to mention that, but instead alleged, without any good source, that some of the money was leaking to organised crime. He failed to impress the judge with this. And doubtless the incident related to federal funds going to New York State, precisely because it was New York State. (Source: youtube video by Legal Eagle, 23mins)

It's simpler than that, they are out for revenge and to clear away any potential regulatory hurdles that are in their way or that of their donors. For example, Musk eviserating the FAA because they had the temerity to enforce the law on SpaceX, they won't be able to do that now, especially as senior SpaceX staff have taken up roles there, replacing FAA staff. More obviously there is the gutting of the IRS tax recovery division, and I expect the EPA to be incapable of enforcing anything much soon. Though some of it is just being a..eholes (eg: USAID).

Meanwhile, more grift, Trump rewrites broad grant rules so Musk's Starlink can benefit.

https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/202 ... t-program/

[bjn]

And that's why the courts will strike this down in an instant. Antisemitism is protected by the First Amendment.

Bearing in mind that the Supreme Court only upheld by a 5 to 4 that the government should pay its bills for contracted work that has been completed I wish I could share your confidence.

There's an awful lot of Trumpers in trouble if antisemitism isn't protected by the 1A...

That would be the correct kind of antisemetism, as opposed to whatever they believe the students are protesting about.

[Stranger Mouse]

As part of their DEI purge they have marked thousands of images for deletion which has some unintended consequences.

For instance, an image of Enola Gay because it had the word “gay”

https://apnews.com/article/dei-purge-im ... 0d49c78074

[Woodchopper]

Every five to 10 years, the World Values Survey asks hundreds of questions of people in dozens of countries, in an attempt to quantify differences in the culture, norms and beliefs of people in different societies.

Usually, analysis is done at national level, but by drilling down to different political parties in the latest raw data, I find that on everything from attitudes towards international co-operation, to appetite for an autocratic leadership style, through to trust in institutions and inward- vs outward-looking mindset, Trump’s America is a stark outlier from western Europe and the rest of the Anglosphere. In many cases, the Maga mindset is much closer to that of Vladimir Putin’s Russia or Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s Turkey.

[...]

The stark divide remains even when we compare US Republicans with their conservative counterparts elsewhere in the west. On the key policy issues defining the 2020s, Trump-era Republicans are a different breed from the British, French or German right.

This wasn’t always the case. The US Republicans of 20 years ago were no keener on autocracy than the average Canadian or western European — and just as supportive of international co-operation.

[...]

While the Maga movement had already begun this value divergence in 2016, the bulk of Trump’s most norm-breaking inclinations were kept in check by those around him in his first term. But those moderating influences have since been replaced by cheerleaders and powerful lieutenants.

In this sense, the US government now embodies the values behind Trump’s and his supporters for the first time, and is rapidly showing them to be misaligned even with most western conservatives.

[...]

Acknowledging the new reality can be clarifying. Western leaders from Canada to Europe stand more chance of navigating both Trump and the broader geopolitical and economic future if they know that he and Vance are using a completely different calculus.

A government seemingly driven by zero-sum ideology and a commitment to reducing international co-operation is one whose threats of a trade war you should probably take seriously despite possible economic self-harm. Likewise, a leadership team that believes geopolitics is a game of cards played by strong men and great powers is one whose support and co- operation other countries should quickly build independence from.

The next four years and beyond will be a bumpy ride come what may, but it will be more navigable after accepting that the world has fundamentally changed. For decades, the US was the champion of western values. The America of Trump, Vance and Musk has left them behind.

https://www.ft.com/content/3046013f-da8 ... 9e3008a9e1

[Tessa K]

As part of their DEI purge they have marked thousands of images for deletion which has some unintended consequences.

For instance, an image of Enola Gay because it had the word “gay”

https://apnews.com/article/dei-purge-im ... 0d49c78074

Mostly images of women and POC to make the white men feel better about themselves. Sone of these images could be lost forever.

[Stranger Mouse]

Looks like Trump has indeed been having a go at Canada because he doesn’t think the existing borders are drawn correctly. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if shots were fired at some point - even if it’s a dodgy militia trying to kick something off.

https://www.rawstory.com/trump-canada-2671286893/

[Chris Preston]

The HHS has just announced that the CDC will conduct large study into the connection between vaccinations and autism.

At the same time other research into autism has been cut by the Trump administration.

The large measles outbreak in Texas and New Mexico is now well over 200 cases and has claimed 2 lives. Kennedy has dismissed this outbreak and the first measles death in the US in more than a decade as an "not unusual".

[shpalman]

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c80y3yx1jdyo

Becky Burke, 28, has spent 10 days in a US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) processing centre in Washington State and was also denied entry into Canada, over a "visa mix-up", said Paul Burke.

He said Ms Burke got free accommodation for helping host families "around the house", which he believes authorities may have suspected broke the terms of her tourist visa.

[Woodchopper]

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c80y3yx1jdyo

Becky Burke, 28, has spent 10 days in a US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) processing centre in Washington State and was also denied entry into Canada, over a "visa mix-up", said Paul Burke.

He said Ms Burke got free accommodation for helping host families "around the house", which he believes authorities may have suspected broke the terms of her tourist visa.

I suspect that someone in a similar situation would have got into trouble in other countries as well. Its common that people can't be an au pair and be given free accommodation and food in exchange for work while on a normal tourist entry or visa. For example, in the UK someone would need to establish a right to work in Britain: https://www.gov.uk/au-pairs-employment-law/au-pairs

[dyqik]

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c80y3yx1jdyo

Becky Burke, 28, has spent 10 days in a US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) processing centre in Washington State and was also denied entry into Canada, over a "visa mix-up", said Paul Burke.

He said Ms Burke got free accommodation for helping host families "around the house", which he believes authorities may have suspected broke the terms of her tourist visa.

I suspect that someone in a similar situation would have got into trouble in other countries as well. Its common that people can't be an au pair and be given free accommodation and food in exchange for work while on a normal tourist entry or visa. For example, in the UK someone would need to establish a right to work in Britain: https://www.gov.uk/au-pairs-employment-law/au-pairs

Yeah, that's a basic no-no in almost any country, and absolutely nothing to do with Trump. You also can't do volunteer work on a tourist visa in the US, because it's too hard to police whether you are getting paid in kind, or overseas.

[Tristan]

The irony here is that the only reference to any of Trump's actions here are ones that actually help her get out of this quicker:

Melissa Chavin, a US immigration lawyer based in London, said Ms Burke could be released either through voluntary departure or expedited removal, but the process of appearing in front of a judge as part of voluntary departure could be delayed because judges had been fired by the Trump administration.

Ms Chavin said expedited removal – which allows officials to quickly deport non citizens – had been expanded under President Trump and could now happen anywhere in the country as opposed to within 100 miles of the border.

"That could work out well for [Ms Burke] – in that she could leave quicker," Ms Chavin said, adding that it would also come with a five-year ban on travelling to the United States.

[Grumble]

And yet volunteering labour has been popularised by Race Across the World (or something like that) as a way to stay over on a budget.

[shpalman]

The irony here is that the only reference to any of Trump's actions here are ones that actually help her get out of this quicker:

Melissa Chavin, a US immigration lawyer based in London, said Ms Burke could be released either through voluntary departure or expedited removal, but the process of appearing in front of a judge as part of voluntary departure could be delayed because judges had been fired by the Trump administration.

Ms Chavin said expedited removal – which allows officials to quickly deport non citizens – had been expanded under President Trump and could now happen anywhere in the country as opposed to within 100 miles of the border.

"That could work out well for [Ms Burke] – in that she could leave quicker," Ms Chavin said, adding that it would also come with a five-year ban on travelling to the United States.

[dyqik]

And yet volunteering labour has been popularised by Race Across the World (or something like that) as a way to stay over on a budget.

Yeah. But it's illegal to work in exchange for anything of monetary value. Its also illegal on many visas to offer voluntary work even without any consideration in return.

[bjn]

A German woman was detained by ICE at the US/Mexican border and has been in custody for weeks now.

https://www.kpbs.org/news/border-immigr ... n-facility

[dyqik]

A German woman was detained by ICE at the US/Mexican border and has been in custody for weeks now.

https://www.kpbs.org/news/border-immigr ... n-facility

That one is much more egregious, because it's only for being suspected of intending to work because she happened to have equipment with her while transiting through the US.

[Woodchopper]

And yet volunteering labour has been popularised by Race Across the World (or something like that) as a way to stay over on a budget.

I don’t know about them, but in terms of international work there’s a general problem with people being encouraged to do things that are either illegal or are in a complex regulatory grey area that could leave people in trouble if something goes wrong. Similar problems with ‘digital nomads’ who want to travel and work remotely for an employer in another country’.

[Grumble]

And yet volunteering labour has been popularised by Race Across the World (or something like that) as a way to stay over on a budget.

I don’t know about them, but in terms of international work there’s a general problem with people being encouraged to do things that are either illegal or are in a complex regulatory grey area that could leave people in trouble if something goes wrong. Similar problems with ‘digital nomads’ who want to travel and work remotely for an employer in another country’.

This was a BBC reality series so they were probably actually on a working visa due to shooting a programme, but the impression to the audience was that they were just travelling and roughing it. tThey were deliberately given a limited budget and a booklet containing places they could stay in exchange for labour. I never watched a whole series, but I did see some of the one they were travelling across Canada.

[IvanV]

A German woman was detained by ICE at the US/Mexican border and has been in custody for weeks now.

https://www.kpbs.org/news/border-immigr ... n-facility

This is a very odd story, and I end up suspecting it is cock-up rather than a conspiracy.

Many people are denied entry for being suspected of intending to work, not just arriving in the US but arriving in the UK and Europe, etc. They are normally just sent back fairly quickly. But when someone turns up at an airport, immigration typically has a rule that the airline that brought them has to take them away. So it is easy to get rid of them very quickly.

Here they are spending lots of money locking her up. Maybe they couldn't just turn her away at the border and send her back to Mexico, because she no longer had the documents to enter Mexico with her flight home being from LA. They could have sent her home for free on her own ticket for the flight home from LA on 15 Feb, but they failed to do that. That looks like a cock-up.

[monkey]

If anyone is wondering what conditions are like in the detentions centres, John Oliver did his main bit on them this week. Might put this cartoonists situation in context and give some insight into how she and many, many other people are being treated for doing f.ck all.

clicky

(TLDW: They're not nice places to be)

[shpalman]

Meanwhile there's a discussion regarding all the undocumented migrants working for cash in Indecision 2024.