COVID-19

[shpalman]

To be clear, of course I don't know why he said that. He may have seen the data for the 16th in which there were only 152 new cases and imagined it was slowing down. There's a doubling time of about 3 days.

If Italy's exponential is actually slowing down thanks to all the restrictive measures (which are going to be extended through April, but aren't restrictive enough according to the Chinese personnel who have come here to help) then maybe there will "only" be a total of about 7000 deaths here, as compared to just over 3000 in Hubei.

No new cases in Wuhan today apparently.

[Woodchopper]

Anyone able to point me toward evidence of the length of time someone will be infectious before they are aware of any symptoms?

Quite literally asking for a friend.

From the recent Imperial college paper:
"Infectiousness is assumed to occur from 12 hours prior to the onset of symptoms for those that are symptomatic and from 4.6 days after infection in
those that are asymptomatic"

Not necessarily the definitive word (references in the paper may well provide source for those assumptions), but probably a good bet.

Howard

Thanks for that.

[shpalman]

COVID-19 challenge!

How many seconds of this can you bear to watch? I can get about 5 seconds in before my arse is so tightly clenched I'm in danger of being turned inside out.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cLPmMHX6eEU

Extinction of the human race suddenly doesn't seem like such a bad prospect.

[Rich H]

A colleague's girlfriend has all the symptoms - luckily they're both in their 20s.

But of course she's not been tested, so doesn't count towards the statistics.

Same for my daughter and her house mates. All four have got symptoms and have been told to stay put by 111. Of course they won't be counted.

[headshot]

There's definitely a cohort of people out there that aren't even following the most basic advice about avoiding contact and social distancing.

I popped into my local town today to get some supplies from Wilko (all well stocked, plenty of soap options etc...same with the local ASDA) and I saw numerous folk who were clearly 65+ just walking around with their friends, spending cash (and receiving change) and not observing any distancing. One elderly man I saw joined the queue at Wilko behind a group of three school kids and stood about 6-inches away from them. Weirdly close in normal circumstances.

I saw another couple, probably in their 70s, shopping for wallpaper. Essential.

[Vertigowooyay]

AAAAAGH!

Encountered a post on FB claiming placing cut unions around the house will absorb viruses from the air and stop you caching the disease. Her mum did it during the Hong Kong flu epidemic you see so it obviously works.

Reported it as Fake News as there is no Wilfully Endangering Public Health option.

I’m going to wait for Len McCluskey to either confirm or deny.

[bagpuss]

There's definitely a cohort of people out there that aren't even following the most basic advice about avoiding contact and social distancing.

I popped into my local town today to get some supplies from Wilko (all well stocked, plenty of soap options etc...same with the local ASDA) and I saw numerous folk who were clearly 65+ just walking around with their friends, spending cash (and receiving change) and not observing any distancing. One elderly man I saw joined the queue at Wilko behind a group of three school kids and stood about 6-inches away from them. Weirdly close in normal circumstances.

I saw another couple, probably in their 70s, shopping for wallpaper. Essential.

A friend, who is self-isolating with her family due to elder son having a high temp a week ago, went for a run yesterday lunchtime, because that's allowed as long as she stays away from other people and she needed some exercise. She had to cut it very short because, having gone along a normally very quiet stretch of canal towpath specifically so as to stay away from other people, she encountered a group of several dozen people on a group walk - the vast majority of them clearly in the 70+ age group and none of them even attempting to keep their distance from each other. FFS.

[Bird on a Fire]

Yep, mostly seems to be boomers ignoring the restrictions here too.

[OneOffDave]

A colleague's girlfriend has all the symptoms - luckily they're both in their 20s.

But of course she's not been tested, so doesn't count towards the statistics.

Same for my daughter and her house mates. All four have got symptoms and have been told to stay put by 111. Of course they won't be counted.

Testing isn't the only way case data is gathered. For example we don't test everyone for flu but have really good surveillance methodology

see Weekly flu reports

[Opti]

Yep, mostly seems to be boomers ignoring the restrictions here too.

Yep, mostly ex-pat boomers here too. I think a few €1000 fines may sort that out in short order. The authorities aren't f.cking about here.

[headshot]

A colleague's girlfriend has all the symptoms - luckily they're both in their 20s.

But of course she's not been tested, so doesn't count towards the statistics.

Same for my daughter and her house mates. All four have got symptoms and have been told to stay put by 111. Of course they won't be counted.

Testing isn't the only way case data is gathered. For example we don't test everyone for flu but have really good surveillance methodology

see Weekly flu reports

"Like"

For a science forum, there's a lot of people here who know less about all of this that this here theatre producer.

[TopBadger]

Yep, mostly seems to be boomers ignoring the restrictions here too.

Oh well - them croaking early is one way to pass wealth down to the younger generation and free up housing stock - so it's not all bad.

[Rich H]

Same for my daughter and her house mates. All four have got symptoms and have been told to stay put by 111. Of course they won't be counted.

Testing isn't the only way case data is gathered. For example we don't test everyone for flu but have really good surveillance methodology

see Weekly flu reports

"Like"

For a science forum, there's a lot of people here who know less about all of this that this here theatre producer.

So? Plenty of us don't know these things and, speaking for myself, I am happy to be educated when I am incorrect.

[bjn]

Yep, mostly seems to be boomers ignoring the restrictions here too.

Oh well - them croaking early is one way to pass wealth down to the younger generation and free up housing stock - so it's not all bad.

How much will it affect voting demographics? Worst case scenario in the UK is supposed to be somewhere around 500K fatalities, mainly boomers. Not enough to swing much here. Several million dead in the USA could have an impact on the November elections, given that would mainly be in the Trump supporting population. Not wishing it, just noting.

[Little waster]

There's definitely a cohort of people out there that aren't even following the most basic advice about avoiding contact and social distancing.

I popped into my local town today to get some supplies from Wilko (all well stocked, plenty of soap options etc...same with the local ASDA) and I saw numerous folk who were clearly 65+ just walking around with their friends, spending cash (and receiving change) and not observing any distancing. One elderly man I saw joined the queue at Wilko behind a group of three school kids and stood about 6-inches away from them. Weirdly close in normal circumstances.

I saw another couple, probably in their 70s, shopping for wallpaper. Essential.

A friend, who is self-isolating with her family due to elder son having a high temp a week ago, went for a run yesterday lunchtime, because that's allowed as long as she stays away from other people and she needed some exercise. She had to cut it very short because, having gone along a normally very quiet stretch of canal towpath specifically so as to stay away from other people, she encountered a group of several dozen people on a group walk - the vast majority of them clearly in the 70+ age group and none of them even attempting to keep their distance from each other. FFS.

Same here, everybody I've passed today has given everyone else a wide berth except for the elderly couple out for a bimble in the park who were walking abreast blocking the entire path pointedly ignoring everyone trying to stay clear of them, by walking in single file and onto the clarts.

[discovolante]

Yep, mostly seems to be boomers ignoring the restrictions here too.

Yes apparently the garden centres are still full.

Also my landlord simply could not delay having blinds installed in our house today and his wife also could not avoid coming round to check the installers had put the right designs in the right place.

[Martin Y]

Yep, mostly seems to be boomers ignoring the restrictions here too.

Oh well - them croaking early is one way to pass wealth down to the younger generation and free up housing stock - so it's not all bad.

That crossed my mind too. Since just about the only way anyone can get a house in this country is to inherit one, an epidemic which targets the elderly might flood the market with houses and solve the housing crisis in a year.

[shpalman]

There's definitely a cohort of people out there that aren't even following the most basic advice about avoiding contact and social distancing.

I popped into my local town today to get some supplies from Wilko (all well stocked, plenty of soap options etc...same with the local ASDA) and I saw numerous folk who were clearly 65+ just walking around with their friends, spending cash (and receiving change) and not observing any distancing. One elderly man I saw joined the queue at Wilko behind a group of three school kids and stood about 6-inches away from them. Weirdly close in normal circumstances.

I saw another couple, probably in their 70s, shopping for wallpaper. Essential.

A friend, who is self-isolating with her family due to elder son having a high temp a week ago, went for a run yesterday lunchtime, because that's allowed as long as she stays away from other people and she needed some exercise. She had to cut it very short because, having gone along a normally very quiet stretch of canal towpath specifically so as to stay away from other people, she encountered a group of several dozen people on a group walk - the vast majority of them clearly in the 70+ age group and none of them even attempting to keep their distance from each other. FFS.

Same here, everybody I've passed today has given everyone else a wide berth except for the elderly couple out for a bimble in the park who were walking abreast blocking the entire path pointedly ignoring everyone trying to stay clear of them, by walking in single file and onto the clarts.

Yep, mostly seems to be boomers ignoring the restrictions here too.

Yes apparently the garden centres are still full.

Also my landlord simply could not delay having blinds installed in our house today and his wife also could not avoid coming round to check the installers had put the right designs in the right place.

If you want, there are photos of army trucks taking the dead bodies out of Bergamo last night because there were too many for the local cemeteries to cope with which you could show them.

[JQH]

AAAAAGH!

Encountered a post on FB claiming placing cut unions around the house will absorb viruses from the air and stop you caching the disease. Her mum did it during the Hong Kong flu epidemic you see so it obviously works.

Reported it as Fake News as there is no Wilfully Endangering Public Health option.

I’m going to wait for Len McCluskey to either confirm or deny.

D'oh! Onions not unions!

[Martin Y]

Yep, mostly seems to be boomers ignoring the restrictions here too.

Yes apparently the garden centres are still full.

Also my landlord simply could not delay having blinds installed in our house today and his wife also could not avoid coming round to check the installers had put the right designs in the right place.

It's the new equivalent of shaking your fist at 'itler and 'is bombs.
Too much Daily Express turns people's heads.

[Little waster]

If you want, there are photos of army trucks taking the dead bodies out of Bergamo last night because there were too many for the local cemeteries to cope with which you could show them.

I may just start coughing loudly in their general direction ...

[JQH]

Yep, mostly seems to be boomers ignoring the restrictions here too.

Oh well - them croaking early is one way to pass wealth down to the younger generation and free up housing stock - so it's not all bad.

How much will it affect voting demographics? Worst case scenario in the UK is supposed to be somewhere around 500K fatalities, mainly boomers. Not enough to swing much here. Several million dead in the USA could have an impact on the November elections, given that would mainly be in the Trump supporting population. Not wishing it, just noting.

That half million could make a huge difference. A fair number of seats in the last GE that switched to the Tories do not have huge majorities so it wouldn't take many voters dying for them to switch back. Especially if the younger voters actually, you know, vote.

Younger generations are naturally pissed off with what they see as boomer selfishness. Some of us oldies are equally pissed off with Millenial and Gen X apathy.

[Little waster]

Younger generations are naturally pissed off with what they see as boomer selfishness. Some of us oldies are equally pissed off with Millenial and Gen X apathy.

You know, what this country needs is a good ...

... oh nevermind, as you were.

[dccarm]

Yes apparently the garden centres are still full.

I was in Dobbies yesterday lunchtime (buying veg seeds - playing the long game) and it was pretty quiet.

[discovolante]

Yep, mostly seems to be boomers ignoring the restrictions here too.

Yes apparently the garden centres are still full.

Also my landlord simply could not delay having blinds installed in our house today and his wife also could not avoid coming round to check the installers had put the right designs in the right place.

It's the new equivalent of shaking your fist at 'itler and 'is bombs.
Too much Daily Express turns people's heads.

I've never had a landlord care so much about my interior decor. I dont even like them though.

And now i am going to have to go to court next week! This is great isn't it.