General Election 2019

[cvb]

Paywalled.

And I'm not paying to read anything by Liddle. I think I can guess what he's saying tbh.

Give your kids some ganga so they will sit in their room and not vote. He doesn't trust brown people.

The usual shite from the despicable sh.t.

[Fishnut]

I say this as a LibDem member but I really wish the LibDems would stop attacking Labour. We need to be looking to build coalitions with the left, not alienate them. The fact that Sam Gyimah was happy to attack Labour councillors in a Conservative-dominated local authority but refused to attack the Conservative councillors for their role in the Grenfell fire speaks volumes. I've been very nervous about the influx of former Conservative MPs to the party and this only heightens my concerns.

A lot of our proEU group are writing to both Corbyn and Swinson calling for them to stop being negative about the other and their party, and pointing out that the only really important issue in this GE is to prevent a Conservative Brexit that will bugger up the country for a generation.

That sounds like a good plan but it infuriates me that it's even necessary. It's pretty damn obvious that fighting between themselves only helps Johnson.

I say this as a LibDem member but I really wish the LibDems would stop attacking Labour. We need to be looking to build coalitions with the left, not alienate them. The fact that Sam Gyimah was happy to attack Labour councillors in a Conservative-dominated local authority but refused to attack the Conservative councillors for their role in the Grenfell fire speaks volumes. I've been very nervous about the influx of former Conservative MPs to the party and this only heightens my concerns.

From the outside it looks like they're saying that they're far happier supporting the Tories than Labour under Corbyn.

Even if they're just being precautious after getting seriously burned last coalition, with the stuff around a 'caretaker' Govt. they were implicitly saying that they would rather see BoJo as PM than Corbyn.

That's the way I've been reading it too, and it worries me greatly. The party has tried to distance itself from the coalition years and now it seems to be (hopefully unintentional) evoking those times by welcoming former Conservatives into the party without making any effort to show they support LibDem policies beyond Brexit, and by speaking out more against a Corbyn premiership than a Johnson one. Some apologists have suggested that it's because a) it's obvious they won't support a Brexit-supporting Johnson so it doesn't need to be said and b) by focusing on Corbyn rather than the "Labour leader" it allows them to work with the party if they drop Corbyn. a) seems naive as it clearly does need to be said when you've got so many former Conservative MPs who seem strangely unable to criticise their former colleagues and have shown little shift in their policy positions other than the fact they don't support a no-deal Brexit (which isn't even a shift in their policy positions, it just shows how crazy the Conservatives have become that that view is one worthy of expulsion). While b) seems naive and dangerous. If Corbyn wins enough seats to be able to form a Coalition government there's no way the party are going to get rid of him, which means we've ruled out a Lib/Lab coalition from the start. And if Swinson is saying that she'd make Labour change their leader before she joins forces with them, well, that's not a move I can condone. I don't want those outside our party from having a say in who gets to lead us and I don't think it's fair to demand that we have a say in who leads other parties.

I get that it's slightly different when that leader is to be PM, and the events earlier this year angered many, including myself, when a relatively small handful of people got to pick who was prime minister. But we go into elections knowing who leads the parties and who will, therefore, become leader of the country if their party wins a majority of seats. So however much I think Corbyn would make a bad PM, I don't think it's Swinson's call - or indeed members of any party other than Labour - to force a change in leadership.

[jimbob]

An interesting review of tactical voting websites

https://jonworth.eu/2019-uk-general-ele ... ing-guide/

TLDR: in most cases they all agree - it's only in a handful where they don't and some of those are special cases discussed in that review.

[darth tater]

Our Conservative MP told someone at a remembrance service the other day that if God wants it, he'll win. Hopefully this means he won't campaign very hard and we'll get our previous, much better, MP back.

[tom p]

If I donate money to a particular constituency, it can only be used in that constituency, can't it?
See, the tories are specnding a lot in Uxbridge & South Ruislip, for some reason, and I thought it might be nice to chuck some readies the way of the labour candidate to try and maybe help remove the sitting MP (one A B de P Johnson).
Am I right - will it all go there and have a not insignificant local effect, or will it just be an insignificant drip in a larger pot?

[Gfamily]

If I donate money to a particular constituency, it can only be used in that constituency, can't it?
See, the tories are specnding a lot in Uxbridge & South Ruislip, for some reason, and I thought it might be nice to chuck some readies the way of the labour candidate to try and maybe help remove the sitting MP (one A B de P Johnson).
Am I right - will it all go there and have a not insignificant local effect, or will it just be an insignificant drip in a larger pot?

I heard somewhere that they've not confirmed he's actually going to be standing there, as his seat isn't hugely safe.

ETA, wiki says he is, but who knows...

[tom p]

I read that too, but a chicken run when PM would look utterly terrible, and they have already chucked a load of cash at that constituency. Still, he is a shameless chancer, and they can just whistle up another billionaire to pony up the thousands, so who can say.

[P.J. Denyer]

Paywalled.

And I'm not paying to read anything by Liddle. I think I can guess what he's saying tbh.

I wouldn't pay for it either, but I got enough time to scan it before the pop up popped up, plus it's being widely reported albeit most because of his suggestion it be held on a Muslim holy day to stop them voting. I think the student angle deserves some weight though as the election date is widely considered to have been chosen in the hope of reducing the student vote.

[Gfamily]

This is just disgraceful

https://www.theguardian.com/education/2 ... dents-vote

[Grumble]

This is just disgraceful

https://www.theguardian.com/education/2 ... dents-vote

But not surprising

[JQH]

Actively trying to prevent a particular group from voting because you don't like the way they are likely to vote is a very clear step along the road to tyranny.

[warumich]

If I donate money to a particular constituency, it can only be used in that constituency, can't it?
See, the tories are specnding a lot in Uxbridge & South Ruislip, for some reason, and I thought it might be nice to chuck some readies the way of the labour candidate to try and maybe help remove the sitting MP (one A B de P Johnson).
Am I right - will it all go there and have a not insignificant local effect, or will it just be an insignificant drip in a larger pot?

This year there's a lot of pro Eu campaigners who have pitched up at the campus to distribute leaflets to the students. Haven't seen this at the last election

Also, I told my students to make sure they're registered, proud to say that they all said that of course they are

[murmur]

She was a minister when she voted in much of that. Best to look at the manifesto.

But AFAIK she has never given much of a mea culpa blaming collective responsibility, her public statements have always been along the lines of "the things I did in coalition I did because I believed in them".

As I say AFAIK.

Quite so. And no-one forced her to serve as a minister in the coalition: she and others (yes, you, Norman Lamb, you utter hypocrite) could have refused on principle, but they didn't. It was her choice and she has not come close to repudiating anything done by that government.

Her words recently have also been very sneaky, such as saying she won't support putting Corbyn or Johnson in 10 Downing Street, which is a long way from saying the Lib Dems will not support a Tory gubbmint. I need to hear some clearer, less ambiguous things and some class of contrition for 2010-15.

I'm not sure I have a big enough peg to put on my nose.

[lpm]

The usual polling station here (village hall) is unavailable. Village school and pub can't be used either.

So an alternative is being used - a 49 minute walk away for me. Even more for half the neighbourhood.

There ought to be a law against it. Is there a law against it?

[lurk]

There ought to be a law against it. Is there a law against it?

Hard to say, the legislation seems vague, as legislation often is.

https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2006/22/section/16

[Woodchopper]

Looks like Labour support in Great Grimsby has evaporated, leading to the Tories being in the lead.

https://twitter.com/Survation/status/11 ... 73409?s=20

The constituency has been held by Labour continuously since the 1930s. In the above poll its 18 points behind. It looks like about a third of the 2017 Labour vote is intending to vote for the Brexit Party, leaving the constituency to be won by the Tories.

If this is an example of a wider trend in leave supporting areas with Labour MPs, then its very good news for Boris Johnson.

[Grumble]

Grimsby council was one of the few back in May to turn Tory against a backdrop of a poor Tory result. So not sure how representative it is really, probably a bit of an outlier.

[Woodchopper]

Grimsby council was one of the few back in May to turn Tory against a backdrop of a poor Tory result. So not sure how representative it is really, probably a bit of an outlier.

Hopefully.

[Trinucleus]

This is appalling. Surely there are a lot of honourable Tories very disturbed by these shenanigans?

Tories pay for a fake Labour manifesto site to feature high on Google searches

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/p ... 12076.html

[GeenDienst]

Labour never quite seem to learn that they can't outkipper the kippers.

[GeenDienst]

I just got a leaflet from the LDs. I like getting election communications, 'cos recycling stuff makes me feel all virtuous. Unusually, I looked at this one.

They point out that "in the May elections", the LDs got more than 3 times what Labour got, under a banner "Labour can't win here". Of course, this was the Euro election. They didn't quite mention that in the 2017 GE, Labour were about 6,500 ish behind the undislodgeable ERG Cuntservative, while the LD was about 24,500 behind the fascist winning post. Is there a special name for telling self-serving porksters to arrive at a statement which is true anyway?

In other news, in today's Graun, it's not going well on the doormat for Magic Grandpa's shock troops in Labour marginals.

“It’s much more about Corbyn than Brexit,” they said. “I have people who are down as Labour supporters saying they won’t come out for me because of him. And this time, it’s much harder to make the argument that Corbyn won’t win so you might as well vote to have a Labour MP – which is what we were doing in 2017.”

The candidate said they had been given some hope from the sense that the contest had become one between the ABBs versus the ABCs – the Anyone But Borises versus the Anyone But Corbyns. “People are going to vote for who they hate the least. There doesn’t seem to be much enthusiasm for either leader.”

They really have to not f.ck up their next leadership election.

[lpm]

It's the LibDems that are going to suffer. The "vote Swinson, get Corbyn" message is very powerful in the remainy southern seats that LibDems have a chance of capturing from Conservative.

There is really no way we should be risking a Labour majority given the disaster of their manifesto, yet we really need a hung parliament because of the disaster of the Boris Brexit. Depends what risk profile potential centrist voters have - will they be more frightened of the Conservative f.ck-up or the Labour suicide note.

[El Pollo Diablo]

The collapse of the brexit party vote is the most interesting thing to happen so far in the election. Looks like a big Tory win at the moment. Vacancies for King Boris's harem will open in January after the New Year break.

[GeenDienst]

LD vote is collapsing as well, peaked around 20% in Oct, steadily down to 15%.

On the poll tracker here, Con/BXP, and Lab/LD traces look pretty much mirror images of each other. I know it's more complicated than that, but I suspect LD votes are generally going back to Lab, because Swinson turns out to be something of a swivel-eyed loon. The LDs should have gone for the boring one, y'know, Thingy.

various bastards.jpg (72.03 KiB) Viewed 5865 times

[Bird on a Fire]

Is anyone attempting polling/modelling by constituency - 41% could be a Con majority, or it could not be. A Lab-Lib opposition could be very useful round about now if they can work together on important stuff (lmao).

My UK postal vote is for a Remainy Con-Lib marginal, so I think I know what I am going to have to do, but I'm not happy about it.