US Election

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bolo
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Re: US Election

Post by bolo » Sat Oct 17, 2020 2:01 am

AMS wrote:
Thu Oct 15, 2020 10:04 pm
bolo wrote:
Thu Oct 15, 2020 6:22 pm
Little waster wrote:
Thu Oct 15, 2020 7:47 am
538s current probabilities for a Democrat clean sweep:-

President: 87%
Senate: 74%
House: 96%

Or cumulatively 61%.
It looks like you got that 61% by multiplying. The three probabilities are highly correlated. My guess is that a Dem sweep is actually somewhere in the low 70s, i.e. almost a lock if they can win the Senate.
I was thinking that. The probability of getting all three is pretty much the probability of getting the Senate.
Today's 538 podcast happened to mention that they have a Dem sweep at 70% probability.

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Re: US Election

Post by EACLucifer » Sat Oct 17, 2020 7:45 am

Image

Early voting in Harris County, Texas. One of the things that stands out for me is just how close 2018 turnout was to 2016 turnout - if that enthusiasm repeats itself alongside the increased turnout of a general election year, things could get interesting. Beto fell short in 2018, but not by a huge margin.

With the possibility that Harris County's early 2020 turnout could exceed its 2016 total turnout, I think Biden and Hegar will like those numbers more than Trump and Cornyn. The Democrats are still the underdogs in Texas by some margin, but its closer than anyone would have expected a year ago.

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Grumble
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Re: US Election

Post by Grumble » Sat Oct 17, 2020 6:36 pm

This is the bit of the 538 predictor that worries me. There’s still an electoral college overlap in the 80% confidence margin. And that overlap would obviously be wider in the 95% margin.
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Re: US Election

Post by shpalman » Sat Oct 17, 2020 9:08 pm

not the Onion
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molto tricky

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Re: US Election

Post by dyqik » Sun Oct 18, 2020 12:12 am

But did JFK Jr replace Pence on the GOP ticket today, as Q forecast?

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Re: US Election

Post by FlammableFlower » Sun Oct 18, 2020 8:15 am

What if Trump buys into it and feels he should follow the predictions...?

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Re: US Election

Post by El Pollo Diablo » Mon Oct 19, 2020 1:19 pm

Lol. Poll yesterday for the Alaska senate race puts the dems in front.
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Re: US Election

Post by EACLucifer » Mon Oct 19, 2020 2:25 pm

El Pollo Diablo wrote:
Mon Oct 19, 2020 1:19 pm
Lol. Poll yesterday for the Alaska senate race puts the dems in front.
Don't sleep on Alaska, as I gather the saying goes.

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Re: US Election

Post by El Pollo Diablo » Mon Oct 19, 2020 2:58 pm

indeed. I don't expect it to go blue. But even the possibility is funny.
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Re: US Election

Post by Woodchopper » Mon Oct 19, 2020 3:08 pm

El Pollo Diablo wrote:
Mon Oct 19, 2020 2:58 pm
indeed. I don't expect it to go blue. But even the possibility is funny.
Not that funny. Sullivan won it in 2014 with only a 1.46% margin over the Democrat Begich, who was the incumbent. Sure, Begich beat an actual crook in 2008. But it was very close last election.

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Re: US Election

Post by Little waster » Mon Oct 19, 2020 3:19 pm

El Pollo Diablo wrote:
Mon Oct 19, 2020 2:58 pm
indeed. I don't expect it to go blue. But even the possibility is funny.
538 have their snake chart, although for Trump now has less of a snake more of a pathetically-truncated little pink worm with the enflamed red head of Nebraska 3rd.

The only way it could be more on the nose would be if it was covered in vile-looking yellow spots* along the shaft (H/T Stormy Daniels).



*given 538's colour-coding presumably representing localised excrescences of libertarian support.
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Re: US Election

Post by EACLucifer » Mon Oct 19, 2020 3:26 pm

Little waster wrote:
Mon Oct 19, 2020 3:19 pm
El Pollo Diablo wrote:
Mon Oct 19, 2020 2:58 pm
indeed. I don't expect it to go blue. But even the possibility is funny.
538 have their snake chart, although for Trump now has less of a snake more of a pathetically-truncated little pink worm with the enflamed red head of Nebraska 3rd.

The only way it could be more on the nose would be if it was covered in vile-looking yellow spots* along the shaft (H/T Stormy Daniels).



*given 538's colour-coding presumably representing localised excrescences of libertarian support.
I really want someone to photoshop - or even MS Paint - a mouth onto the blue part of the snake chart to show it eating the red part.

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Re: US Election

Post by jimbob » Mon Oct 19, 2020 4:48 pm

I started a new thread about this that I've just seen, but think it should be cross-posted here:
jimbob wrote:
Mon Oct 19, 2020 4:47 pm
https://www.axios.com/americas-true-une ... 5840d.html

The recession made everything worse. Only 46.1% of white Americans over the age of 16 — and a mere 40.8% of Black Americans — now have a full-time job paying more than $20,000 per year.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: US Election

Post by EACLucifer » Mon Oct 19, 2020 6:05 pm

Seeing that even Fox News passed up the Rudy Giuliani ratfucking attempt that appeared in the NY Post, it is the perfect opportunity to post this clip.

It's reassuring to see that - so far - the media seem a little less eager to amplify disinformation.

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Re: US Election

Post by dyqik » Mon Oct 19, 2020 7:02 pm

I've voted.

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Re: US Election

Post by discovolante » Mon Oct 19, 2020 7:05 pm

dyqik wrote:
Mon Oct 19, 2020 7:02 pm
I've voted.
Who for?
don't get any big ideas, they're not gonna happen

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Re: US Election

Post by bmforre » Mon Oct 19, 2020 7:09 pm

discovolante wrote:
Mon Oct 19, 2020 7:05 pm
dyqik wrote:
Mon Oct 19, 2020 7:02 pm
I've voted.
Who for?
Kamala?

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Re: US Election

Post by dyqik » Mon Oct 19, 2020 7:12 pm

discovolante wrote:
Mon Oct 19, 2020 7:05 pm
dyqik wrote:
Mon Oct 19, 2020 7:02 pm
I've voted.
Who for?
Yes on Question 1.

(Only two of six races on the ballot had challengers to the incumbents)

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Re: US Election

Post by dyqik » Mon Oct 19, 2020 8:21 pm

Trump is trialing a new attack on Biden: "He wants to listen to Dr Fauci".

Public trust in Fauci on CoVID - 70%
Public trust in Trump on CoVID - 35%

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Re: US Election

Post by dyqik » Mon Oct 19, 2020 8:25 pm

dyqik wrote:
Mon Oct 19, 2020 7:12 pm
discovolante wrote:
Mon Oct 19, 2020 7:05 pm
dyqik wrote:
Mon Oct 19, 2020 7:02 pm
I've voted.
Who for?
Yes on Question 1.

(Only two of six races on the ballot had challengers to the incumbents)
And in the two contested races, the 538 prediction for the voting share is roughly D 68%, R 26%.

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bolo
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Re: US Election

Post by bolo » Mon Oct 19, 2020 8:33 pm

I am shocked, yes shocked, that you voted yes on Question 1.

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Re: US Election

Post by FlammableFlower » Mon Oct 19, 2020 8:42 pm

In addition to warning people that Biden will (shocked stage whisper), "listen to the scientists", he still can't let the fake "war on Christmas thing go":
Trump also warned during his rally on Sunday that "the Christmas season will be cancelled" if Biden wins in November.

"The Christmas season will be cancelled. Look, remember I said we're going to bring back Christmas? The name. Remember? We brought it back. Remember?" he asked.

"They'd say, 'Have a great season.' I say, 'No, I don't want to have a great season. I want to say 'merry Christmas.' Say 'merry Christmas.' Now, they're all saying 'merry Christmas,' " he added.
'Cos we all remember when Trump brought back Christmas...

Serious - does anyone actually believe that?

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Re: US Election

Post by dyqik » Mon Oct 19, 2020 9:04 pm

bolo wrote:
Mon Oct 19, 2020 8:33 pm
I am shocked, yes shocked, that you voted yes on Question 1.
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Re: US Election

Post by Little waster » Mon Oct 19, 2020 9:45 pm

FlammableFlower wrote:
Mon Oct 19, 2020 8:42 pm
In addition to warning people that Biden will (shocked stage whisper), "listen to the scientists", he still can't let the fake "war on Christmas thing go":
Trump also warned during his rally on Sunday that "the Christmas season will be cancelled" if Biden wins in November.

"The Christmas season will be cancelled. Look, remember I said we're going to bring back Christmas? The name. Remember? We brought it back. Remember?" he asked.

"They'd say, 'Have a great season.' I say, 'No, I don't want to have a great season. I want to say 'merry Christmas.' Say 'merry Christmas.' Now, they're all saying 'merry Christmas,' " he added.
'Cos we all remember when Trump brought back Christmas...

Serious - does anyone actually believe that?
Typical sneering libtard, It was only a couple of weeks ago someone prominent (her name has slipped my mind for the moment) was caught on tape saying:-
"Who gives a f.ck about Christmas?

I’m working ... my ass off on the Christmas stuff, that you know, who gives a f.ck about the Christmas stuff and decorations?”
I mean what more evidence do you want that some people simply hate Christmas and America?

They probably even think dead US soldiers are all "losers" and "suckers" too and their grieving families are all filthy and disease-ridden who should stay away from decent draft-dodging folks. You know the sorts of people who probably take instructions from the Kremlin and divulge state secrets due to all the Compromat they've accumulated because of their degenerate lifestyles; paying off p.rn stars, hobnobbing with child sex traffickers, having holidays on "Paedophile Island" and the like.

Luckily on November 3rd the decent silent majority of the US electorate can put these disgraceful people and their disgusting enablers back in their place.
Last edited by Little waster on Mon Oct 19, 2020 9:46 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: US Election

Post by Grumble » Mon Oct 19, 2020 9:45 pm

bolo wrote:
Mon Oct 19, 2020 8:33 pm
I am shocked, yes shocked, that you voted yes on Question 1.
What’s that?
I know this is vitriol, no solution, spleen venting, but I feel better having screamed, don’t you?

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