General Election 2019

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El Pollo Diablo
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Re: General Election 2019

Post by El Pollo Diablo » Thu Dec 12, 2019 10:54 am

El Pollo Diablo wrote:
Tue Dec 10, 2019 4:38 pm
Final polls should be in tomorrow. In June 2017, the spread of final polls was this, with the actual poll result on the bottom line:

Code: Select all

					C	L	LD	U	G	Lead(%)
Panelbase/		2017-06-07	44	36	7	5	2	8
Kantar/			2017-06-07	43	38	7	4	2	5
ICM/Guardian		2017-06-07	46	34	7	5	2	12
YouGov/Times		2017-06-07	42	35	10	5	2	7
ComRes/Independent	2017-06-07	44	34	9	5	2	10
Survation/		2017-06-07	41	40	8	2	2	1
BMG/Herald		2017-06-07	46	33	8	5	3	13
Ipsos-MORI/Eve. Std.	2017-06-07	44	36	7	4	2	8
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________
Actual Result		2017-06-08	42.3	40	7.4	1.8	1.6	2.3
It'll be interesting to see what the spread looks like tomorrow.
Okay, so the final polls for this election are below:

Code: Select all

					C	L	LD	Br	G	Lead(%)
Panelbase/		2019-12-11	43	34	11	4	3	9
Kantar/			2019-12-11	44	32	13	3	3	12
ICM			2019-12-10	42	36	12	3	2	6
YouGov			2019-12-10	43	34	12	3	3	9
ComRes/Telegraph	2019-12-11	41	36	12	3	2	5
Survation/		2019-12-11	45	34	9	3	3	11
BMG			2019-12-11	41	32	14	3	4	9
Deltapoll		2019-12-11	45	35	10	3	3	10
Opinium			2019-12-11	45	33	12	2	2	12
Other than the 2017 Survation poll, these are similar numbers to last time. Throughout this campaign, house effects are fairly consistent, so Opinium and Kantar have been showing the biggest leads for the Tories; however, most polling companies have changed their approach from the last election so changes in polling since 2017 aren't a marker of anything particular. The YouGov poll there is the MRP one which did a good job last time, I think (but which isn't in the 2017 table). Obviously, I'm really hoping the ComRes and ICM polls are the more accurate ones, but we'll have to wait and see. I doubt that is the case this time, not least because apparently ComRes can't be trusted :roll:
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FredM
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Re: General Election 2019

Post by FredM » Thu Dec 12, 2019 10:57 am

High early turnout being reported here in Norwich S.

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Little waster
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Re: General Election 2019

Post by Little waster » Thu Dec 12, 2019 11:01 am

Lots of photos of big queues outside polling stations suggesting either high turn-out or piss-poor organisation. You pays your money and you makes your choice. Anyone's guess if turnout is really up and who that actually benefits.

I live opposite my local polling station, no queues but a constant trickle of voters. Only one person inside marking off names so there was about a minute's worth of hanging around inside waiting to get see to.
GeenDienst wrote:
Thu Dec 12, 2019 10:23 am
This is the only explanation I can think of why Corbyn called this election when way behind in the polls, reportedly over the objections of his shadow cabinet, and when the Johnson government was trapped and floundering.
Conversely, when the government is trapped and floundering is exactly the right point to call an election.

Similarly with the end of October deadline looming Labour had a get-out in avoiding an early election to prevent an "accidental" No Deal Brexit by default but once that got shifted to January 2020, with just enough time for a Xmas election to attempt to bring some Parliamentary clarity, they no longer had that reason and risked looking frit.

You also have to remember all the polling at the time suggested Johnson failing to die in a ditch on the 31st October would result in a Conservative polling meltdown, to the benefit of the BP, with Labour then sneaking through the middle. What we had instead was an electoral Heisenberg Event with everyone adjusting their behaviours accordingly, so Johnson's went harder on the "Get Brexit Done" line than he might have done, Farage made his miscalculation which saw the BP apparently evaporate and Swinson et al. went down an informal Remain Alliance route to the apparent benefit of Corbyn. It is still to be seen how all those adjustments ultimately hold-up and unknowable what an alternative Corbyn decision would have resulted in.

Ideally I'd have left Johnson swinging in the wind a bit longer with a negative majority, a disgruntled DUP and the economy turning sour; the likelihood is a Spring 2020 election would have been a completely different box of monkeys but I'm not sure that was ever a viable option with the January deadline approaching.
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El Pollo Diablo
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Re: General Election 2019

Post by El Pollo Diablo » Thu Dec 12, 2019 11:03 am

Doesn't matter now.

Nothing matters any more.
If truth is many-sided, mendacity is many-tongued

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GeenDienst
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Re: General Election 2019

Post by GeenDienst » Thu Dec 12, 2019 11:07 am

Is there a way to make this site play "Lady In Red" in the background?
Just tell 'em I'm broke and don't come round here no more.

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El Pollo Diablo
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Re: General Election 2019

Post by El Pollo Diablo » Thu Dec 12, 2019 11:07 am

f.ck off, things aren't that f.cking awful.
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El Pollo Diablo
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Re: General Election 2019

Post by El Pollo Diablo » Thu Dec 12, 2019 11:09 am

And besides, I'm pretty sure that the UN War Crimes Commission have said that Chris de Burgh torture is illegal and never has any justification. We don't want the site being shut down.

Also, if we did play any Chris de burgh it'd be a spaceman came travelling.
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Re: General Election 2019

Post by Little waster » Thu Dec 12, 2019 11:10 am

D:Ream then?
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Re: General Election 2019

Post by murmur » Thu Dec 12, 2019 11:10 am

GeenDienst wrote:
Thu Dec 12, 2019 11:07 am
Is there a way to make this site play "Lady In Red" in the background?
There is never, but NEVER, an excuse for playing that shite.

I'm off to spend the rest of the day lying down playing as many soothing choons as I can lay my hands on, before resorting to apocalyptic "post-Rock" tonight...
It's so much more attractive inside the moral kiosk

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Re: General Election 2019

Post by Gentleman Jim » Thu Dec 12, 2019 11:12 am

How about turning all threads into a punfest?

eta Just to cheer-up epd, of course
Last edited by Gentleman Jim on Thu Dec 12, 2019 11:14 am, edited 1 time in total.
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El Pollo Diablo
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Re: General Election 2019

Post by El Pollo Diablo » Thu Dec 12, 2019 11:13 am

How about no
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Re: General Election 2019

Post by GeenDienst » Thu Dec 12, 2019 11:14 am

El Pollo Diablo wrote:
Thu Dec 12, 2019 11:09 am
We don't want the site being shut down.
We demand a referendum.
Just tell 'em I'm broke and don't come round here no more.

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Re: General Election 2019

Post by Gentleman Jim » Thu Dec 12, 2019 11:17 am

Rules are for the guidance of wise men and the obedience of fools.

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Re: General Election 2019

Post by tenchboy » Thu Dec 12, 2019 11:43 am

El Pollo Diablo wrote:
Thu Dec 12, 2019 11:09 am
And besides, I'm pretty sure that the UN War Crimes Commission have said that Chris de Burgh torture is illegal and never has any justification. We don't want the site being shut down.

Also, if we did play any Chris de burgh it'd be a spaceman came travelling.
Hmm, is it OK to punch CdB when he sings "...through light-years of time"?
If you want me Steve, just Snapchat me yeah? You know how to Snapchap me doncha Steve? You just...

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Re: General Election 2019

Post by cvb » Thu Dec 12, 2019 11:51 am

tenchboy wrote:
Thu Dec 12, 2019 11:43 am
El Pollo Diablo wrote:
Thu Dec 12, 2019 11:09 am
And besides, I'm pretty sure that the UN War Crimes Commission have said that Chris de Burgh torture is illegal and never has any justification. We don't want the site being shut down.

Also, if we did play any Chris de burgh it'd be a spaceman came travelling.
Hmm, is it OK to punch CdB when he sings "...through light-years of time"?
It's always OK to punch CdB, just like Nazis.

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Re: General Election 2019

Post by dyqik » Thu Dec 12, 2019 12:25 pm

tenchboy wrote:
Thu Dec 12, 2019 11:43 am

Hmm, is it OK to punch CdB when he sings "...through light-years of time"?
There's nothing wrong per se with light years as a unit of time. It's just a bit weird, as a light-light-year would be equal to exactly one year. I guess you could define them using a light-year of distance in vacuum, and then use the speed of light in the local medium for conversion back to time, so that a light-light-year is longer under the sea or in other dielectrics.

Maybe this election result will last for more than half a light-parsec.

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Re: General Election 2019

Post by plodder » Thu Dec 12, 2019 12:54 pm

GeenDienst wrote:
Thu Dec 12, 2019 11:07 am
Is there a way to make this site play "Lady In Red" in the background?
A friend of mine is a cabaret artist, and was in a restaurant one night wearing a red dress. Chris de Burgh was also at the restaurant, and, uninvited, sang Lady in Red to her, a capella, and with full dramatic effect.

I'm advised that excruciating doesn't begin to describe it.

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Re: General Election 2019

Post by Gfamily » Thu Dec 12, 2019 1:15 pm

dyqik wrote:
Thu Dec 12, 2019 12:25 pm
tenchboy wrote:
Thu Dec 12, 2019 11:43 am

Hmm, is it OK to punch CdB when he sings "...through light-years of time"?
There's nothing wrong per se with light years as a unit of time. It's just a bit weird, as a light-light-year would be equal to exactly one year. I guess you could define them using a light-year of distance in vacuum, and then use the speed of light in the local medium for conversion back to time, so that a light-light-year is longer under the sea or in other dielectrics.

Maybe this election result will last for more than half a light-parsec.
err, isn't a light light year = 0 seconds?
My avatar was a scientific result that was later found to be 'mistaken' - I rarely claim to be 100% correct
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Re: General Election 2019

Post by dyqik » Thu Dec 12, 2019 1:21 pm

Gfamily wrote:
Thu Dec 12, 2019 1:15 pm
dyqik wrote:
Thu Dec 12, 2019 12:25 pm
tenchboy wrote:
Thu Dec 12, 2019 11:43 am

Hmm, is it OK to punch CdB when he sings "...through light-years of time"?
There's nothing wrong per se with light years as a unit of time. It's just a bit weird, as a light-light-year would be equal to exactly one year. I guess you could define them using a light-year of distance in vacuum, and then use the speed of light in the local medium for conversion back to time, so that a light-light-year is longer under the sea or in other dielectrics.

Maybe this election result will last for more than half a light-parsec.
err, isn't a light light year = 0 seconds?
No. A light-year is the distance that light travels in a year. Therefore a light-light-year should be the time that light takes to travel the distance that light travels in a year. At least, if you want to construct a unit of time from a light-year, that's the easiest and most universal way to do it.

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Re: General Election 2019

Post by GeenDienst » Thu Dec 12, 2019 1:23 pm

So a light light year is the same as a snail snail year.
Just tell 'em I'm broke and don't come round here no more.

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Gfamily
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Re: General Election 2019

Post by Gfamily » Thu Dec 12, 2019 1:27 pm

dyqik wrote:
Thu Dec 12, 2019 1:21 pm
Gfamily wrote:
Thu Dec 12, 2019 1:15 pm
dyqik wrote:
Thu Dec 12, 2019 12:25 pm


There's nothing wrong per se with light years as a unit of time. It's just a bit weird, as a light-light-year would be equal to exactly one year. I guess you could define them using a light-year of distance in vacuum, and then use the speed of light in the local medium for conversion back to time, so that a light-light-year is longer under the sea or in other dielectrics.

Maybe this election result will last for more than half a light-parsec.
err, isn't a light light year = 0 seconds?
No. A light-year is the distance that light travels in a year. Therefore a light-light-year should be the time that light takes to travel the distance that light travels in a year. At least, if you want to construct a unit of time from a light-year, that's the easiest and most universal way to do it.
So long as we're doing the measuring - for the light itself...
My avatar was a scientific result that was later found to be 'mistaken' - I rarely claim to be 100% correct
ETA 5/8/20: I've been advised that the result was correct, it was the initial interpretation that needed to be withdrawn
Meta? I'd say so!

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Re: General Election 2019

Post by JQH » Thu Dec 12, 2019 2:43 pm

tenchboy wrote:
Thu Dec 12, 2019 11:43 am
El Pollo Diablo wrote:
Thu Dec 12, 2019 11:09 am
And besides, I'm pretty sure that the UN War Crimes Commission have said that Chris de Burgh torture is illegal and never has any justification. We don't want the site being shut down.

Also, if we did play any Chris de burgh it'd be a spaceman came travelling.
Hmm, is it OK to punch CdB when he sings "...through light-years of time"?
Hanging would be too good.
And remember that if you botch the exit, the carnival of reaction may be coming to a town near you.

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Gfamily
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Re: General Election 2019

Post by Gfamily » Thu Dec 12, 2019 2:56 pm

I know we should be cross, but...
Boris captcha.jpg
Boris captcha.jpg (99.31 KiB) Viewed 4170 times
My avatar was a scientific result that was later found to be 'mistaken' - I rarely claim to be 100% correct
ETA 5/8/20: I've been advised that the result was correct, it was the initial interpretation that needed to be withdrawn
Meta? I'd say so!

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Re: General Election 2019

Post by Woodchopper » Thu Dec 12, 2019 3:00 pm

Little waster wrote:
Thu Dec 12, 2019 11:01 am
Lots of photos of big queues outside polling stations suggesting either high turn-out or piss-poor organisation. You pays your money and you makes your choice. Anyone's guess if turnout is really up and who that actually benefits.

I live opposite my local polling station, no queues but a constant trickle of voters. Only one person inside marking off names so there was about a minute's worth of hanging around inside waiting to get see to.
GeenDienst wrote:
Thu Dec 12, 2019 10:23 am
This is the only explanation I can think of why Corbyn called this election when way behind in the polls, reportedly over the objections of his shadow cabinet, and when the Johnson government was trapped and floundering.
Conversely, when the government is trapped and floundering is exactly the right point to call an election.

Similarly with the end of October deadline looming Labour had a get-out in avoiding an early election to prevent an "accidental" No Deal Brexit by default but once that got shifted to January 2020, with just enough time for a Xmas election to attempt to bring some Parliamentary clarity, they no longer had that reason and risked looking frit.

You also have to remember all the polling at the time suggested Johnson failing to die in a ditch on the 31st October would result in a Conservative polling meltdown, to the benefit of the BP, with Labour then sneaking through the middle. What we had instead was an electoral Heisenberg Event with everyone adjusting their behaviours accordingly, so Johnson's went harder on the "Get Brexit Done" line than he might have done, Farage made his miscalculation which saw the BP apparently evaporate and Swinson et al. went down an informal Remain Alliance route to the apparent benefit of Corbyn. It is still to be seen how all those adjustments ultimately hold-up and unknowable what an alternative Corbyn decision would have resulted in.

Ideally I'd have left Johnson swinging in the wind a bit longer with a negative majority, a disgruntled DUP and the economy turning sour; the likelihood is a Spring 2020 election would have been a completely different box of monkeys but I'm not sure that was ever a viable option with the January deadline approaching.
It wasn't Corbyn's decision anyway. The vote for this election was passed via an amendment to the Fixed Term Parliament Act so it just required a majority of 1. The Liberals and SNP were willing to support a December election and that gave Boris his majority on that issue.

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Re: General Election 2019

Post by Martin Y » Thu Dec 12, 2019 3:01 pm

Gfamily wrote:
Thu Dec 12, 2019 2:56 pm
I know we should be cross, but...
Boris captcha.jpg
That is f.cking funny, right there. Cheered me right up. Thanks.

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